07 de maig 2015

The organizational challenge of our health system

My speach today at Foment del Treball Nacional, general assembly of Unió Catalana d'Hospitals:

Honorable Conseller, President de la Unió, Socis i Directius,
Voldria agraïr en primer lloc l’oportunitat d’oferir-vos avui unes reflexions sobre el repte organitzatiu del nostre sistema de salut. És ben cert que en uns moments de canvi econòmic i social accelerat, el sector salut se’n vegi afectat de forma profunda atesa la seva relevància en els ciutadans. Des de dins, un pot pensar que les dificultats es troben al sector salut i jo voldria situar només per un moment el context, per entendre on som i com això influeix.
El desenvolupament econòmic d’un país es reflecteix mitjançant el producte interior brut. Sabem que el PIB per càpita del 2014 és un 0,6% més alt, si només un 0,6%, que el que hi havia fa 8 anys, el 2006, 168 euros més (26.996 €). Aquest és una situació desconeguda per tota la nostra generació que havíem viscut en un procés continuat de creixement econòmic.
Durant aquests anys l’Estat espanyol ha acumulat un dèficit públic de 568 mil milions d’euros. Això vol dir que de mitjana anualment durant els darrers 8 anys s’ha tingut un dèficit del 13,6% de la despesa pública. Qualsevol dels que som aquí, si a casa nostra gastéssim un 13,6% anual més d’allò que ingressem tindríem problemes molt seriosos que ben segur acabaríem traslladant als nostres fills i a les generacions futures. Ens trobem doncs davant d’un problema de gestió pressupostària irresponsable d’elevada magnitud.
El nivell de desigualtat econòmica de les famílies s’ha agreujat com no havíem conegut mai en tant poc temps. L’OCDE ha mostrat que si mesurem la desigualtat en els canvis en renda disponible, l’Estat Espanyol encapçala el conjunt dels 30 països, amb un fort diferencial.
La despesa sanitària per càpita pública a Catalunya el 2015, 1.120€ és equivalent a la del 2006, 1.118€.
És bo de saber que la satisfacció ciutadana amb el sistema sanitari públic ha crescut notablement, ha passat del 79% el 2006, al 88% el 2013. Aquest és un fet més que notable, que cal destacar .
I si ens fixem en els canvis en l’esperança de vida en bona salut entre 2005 i 2012 hem passat de 63 a 65,7 anys en els homes i de 60,6 anys a 66,1 per a les dones. La proporció d’anys viscuts en bona salut ha passat de 72 % a 77% a les dones i del 81 al 82% als homes. L’esperança de vida de les dones encapçala el ranking d’Europa. Aquest és un fet més que notable, un èxit ciutadà, dels seus hàbits i comportaments saludables, i del nostre sistema de salut. Aquest resultats no s’obtenen per l’atzar.
Malgrat tot això que us mostro, i que difícilment veureu reflectit acuradament als mitjans, el mantra que s’ha establert és exactament el contrari, el de les retallades i el seu efecte nociu per a la salut. Jo us parlaré d’una altra cosa avui, però volia deixar ben clar el context per evitar qualsevol confusió sobre on som.
Ens trobem davant d’un sistema de salut que assoleix uns resultats bons, més que notables amb els recursos que hi dediquem. L’excel.lent periodista Antoni Bassas ho recordava la setmana passada, deia: un país es pot definir per la seva llengua, la seva cultura, la seva història, però també pel funcionament dels serveis bàsics que presta als seus ciutadans. I això, la sanitat catalana és la joia de la corona: eficient, de qualitat i universal. Respon a un pacte social no escrit pel qual el 40% del pressupost de la Generalitat es gasta en sanitat.
I afegia: Qualsevol que hagi anat pel món, i no només per països més pobres que Catalunya, sinó també per països de la Unió Europea, reconeixerà que amb retallades o sense, en matèria de sanitat no sabem el que tenim. Centenars de milions de persones a tot el món donarien el que no tenen per poder portar a la butxaca una targeta que els cobrís com ens cobreix a nosaltres la nostra targeta sanitària.
Estic convençut que la majoria dels que som aquí compartim les seves paraules. Aleshores, podem preguntar-nos què justifica que la sanitat sigui motiu de tanta controvèrsia, que es neguin els fets i que se’n faci un ús partidari dels arguments polítics. Això té a veure amb diversos factors, però deixeu-me que en destaqui dos: “els mèdia” i “els marcs de referència”. Vivim en un temps on la política està segrestada pel que en Neil Postman titllava de “show business”. Aquest gran sociòleg ja traspassat, va escriure l’any 1985 un llibre premonitori molt recomanable titulat: “Divertim-nos fins a morir, el discurs públic a l’era del show business”.
Deia al final del llibre: El que jo suggereixo és el que deia també Aldous Huxley , estem en una cursa entre l'educació i el desastre, i necessitem entendre la política i l’epistemologia dels mitjans de comunicació. El que afligia a la gent del El món feliç no era que estiguessin rient en lloc de pensar, sino que no sabien de què estaven rient i perquè havien deixat de pensar”. Aquest és un text escrit abans de l’existència d’internet i les xarxes socials. No afegiré res més. La banalització de la cultura i de la política s’ha imposat i ens convé retornar a l’esperit crític fonamentat i al debat respectuós, aquell que ens fa progressar com societat i com a persones.
La segona qüestió que volia destacar prové de la ciència cognitiva, en concret del professor de Berkeley, George Lakoff i del seu llibre “No pensis en un elefant”. Diu: Els marcs de referència són estructures mentals que conformen la nostra manera de veure el món, conformen els objectius que ens proposem, els plans que fem, la nostra forma d’actuar i allò que compta com a resultat bo o dolent de les nostres accions. En política, els marcs conformen les nostres polítiques social i les institucions. Canviar els nostres marcs és canviar tot això. Els marcs de referència no poden veure’s ni sentir-se, formen part de l’inconscient cognitiu, estructures del nostre cervell a les que no podem accedir conscientment, però que coneixem per les seves conseqüències: la nostra forma de pensar i el que s’entén per sentit comú.
Segueixo els treballs de George Lakoff des de fa anys i estic convençut que ens pot proporcionar la clau per comprendre què està succeint en la política i la gestió sanitària: ens trobem davant un nou marc de referència que lluita amb el que hem conviscut durant molts anys i que ens mantenia en allò que els psicòlegs en diuen “zona de confort”.
***
Fa temps un periodista em preguntava, em deia Pere, què creus que necessita el sistema de salut català: més finançament i millor organització?. Jo li vaig dir que la resposta no era ni una cosa ni l’altra, sino totes dues. Ell sens dubte volia un titular, i això ja no hi cabia. Cal estar atent als falsos dilemes i no deixar-nos entabanar.
Necessitem més finançament si som capaços de demostrar quin és el valor marginal obtingut de cada euro addicional gastat. Altrament em resisteixo a assenyalar quin és el nivell de finançament necessari i acurat. Malgrat tot, ja sabem que el debat sanitari pivota massa sobre quants diners ens gastem i massa poc en què n’obtenim a canvi. Massa en el finançament i poc en l’organització.
Per altra banda, fa més de tres dècades que una Constitució va dir que els ciutadans erem iguals davant la llei, però en canvi podem observar que quan hi ha concert econòmic, uns ciutadans poden gastar en sanitat pública un 40% que nosaltres en el marc d’un mateix Estat de Dret. El que tenim des d’aleshores és un estat del revés, un nyap. En un estat del revés ningú no pot pensar seriosament en criteris objectius, ni fixar prioritats, primer cal posar-lo del dret. Això no ha estat possible des de fa molts, massa anys.
El 2004 vaig escriure un article a Annals de Medicina titulat: “D’on no n’hi ha no en pot rajar, repensant l’atenció i el finançament sanitari”. En bona part, som on érem aleshores, i el que vaig preveure, va succeïr. Ara bé, a data d’avui hi ha una gran diferència, la perspectiva d’un nou Estat de dret, un Estat de veritat que sigui capaç de donar resposta a les preferències ciutadanes. I ara també és el moment de recordar que cal desconfiar de venedors de fum, aquells que proposen polítiques socials sense finançament en un estat del revés. Siguem-ne conscients.
Per tant necessitem millor finançament en un marc on puguem prioritzar els recursos per assolir un valor més gran en salut, i això només serà possible en un marc polític de referència nou.
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Però alhora necessitem millor organització, molt millor organització. I permeteu-me una nova autocita, aquesta vegada del 2001. En un article a la revista Fulls Econòmics del Sistema Sanitari, juntament amb l’amic Jordi Calsina, vam escriure un article titulat: “Més enllà de la separació de funcions: les organitzacions sanitàries integrades”. Fa quinze anys que alguns ja ens havíem adonat que calia canviar de marc de referència en l’aspecte organitzatiu. Han passat anys i ens hem mantingut en la “zona de confort” a la que em referia abans. Calia anar més enllà de la separació de funcions perquè alguns veiem que era un concepte difús, complicat de portar a terme a la pràctica en un entorn on la transferència de risc només s’aguanta sobre el paper. I proposavem les organitzacions sanitàries integrades en la mesura que capgirava la lògica de la compra de serveis pel compromís amb la salut de la comunitat per part de tots els proveïdors.
He estat seguint d’aprop l’esforç fet des de Palamós, als Serveis Sanitaris Integrats del Baix Empordà, enfocat cap una visió de servei integradora. No és per casualitat que un foraster distingit com en Tom Sharpe escrivia amb claredat al The Guardian sobre la qualitat de servei que hi va rebre. Més enllà d’aquesta anècdota, si em preguntessin per un model organitzatiu acurat seria aquest, evidentment com sempre millorable.
Tenim un sistema públic de salut amb unes característiques organitzatives singulars destacables, en citaré dues només. La primera és la planificació de recursos, el mapa sanitari, la condició prèvia a qualsevol desgavell inversor i a l’excés de capacitat instal.lada que acostuma a succeïr en entorns privats. La segona és la inexistència del pagament per acte mèdic, motiu de sobrediagnòstic i tractament a molts sistemes de salut. Aquells que encara l’apliquen lluiten per fugir-ne.
Tota organització descansa sobre tres pilars: l’assignació de drets de decisió i tasques, la compensació de l’esforç i l’avaluació del rendiment. Les decisions a les organitzacions sanitàries integrades tenen tres nivells: governança, gestió i decisió clínica. Els drets de propietat són els que assenyalen qui ha d’assumir la funció de govern de les institucions. La governança de l’organització s’entén com el conjunt de mecanismes de control que s’adopten per tal que els conflictes d’interès representin una pèrdua de valor. Aquí cal assenyalar que la perspectiva de valor és social (no és el cas del valor per l’accionista a una empresa privada) i aquesta perspectiva social apunta a una responsabilitat envers la comunitat.
L’exercici responsable de la governança de les organitzacions ha estat possiblement la peça més oblidada de l’engranatge del sistema públic de salut. Algunes de les controvèrsies del moment ens les hauríem pogut estalviar si haguéssim dedicat més esforços a estructurar la funció de governança. Com sempre generalitzar té riscos, i per tant hi ha hagut casos exemplars de governança però que al meu entendre han estat aïllats.
Una condició inicial per a una bona governança és que la selecció de membres del consell d’administració s’enfoqui cap a les capacitats i el talent, i eviti al màxim determinats conflictes d’interès. En aquest sentit, sóc de l’opinió que a les empreses convé representants que vetllin pels resultats en salut exigint l’estricte compliment pressupostari i evitar conflictes d’interès per part dels directius. Si es tracta d’una empresa pública, aleshores cal evitar que “el client”- “el finançador” segui al consell, i en canvi cal que la representació del propietari últim que és Economia resti garantida.
Cal tenir present doncs la separació entre el que és la propietat dels actius públics que depenen al final d’Economia, i la gestió dels serveis que correspon a l’empresa a qui s’assignen com a concessió. En el cas que els actius siguin privats no lucratius, el compromís en una bona governança obliga a vetllar igualment per als objectius finals de creació de valor.
La tasca dels consellers ha de tenir un caràcter professional, l’exigència i responsabilitat ha de ser màxima. Al nostre entorn, això no s’assoleix en un entorn voluntarista com podíem imaginar fa dècades. Si volem un esforç acurat cal compensar-lo acuradament tant a les empreses públiques com a les no lucratives.
Com podeu imaginar, tractar del tema de governança ens portaria a una conferència sencera i per tant no m’estendré més en això.
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Els drets de decisió sobre la gestió provenen de l’encàrrec que des del govern de l’empresa es fa als màxims directius i per tant són ells qui decideixen quin és el nivell de descentralització posterior de les decisions i tasques a dur a terme. I quan arribem aquí cal recordar les singularitats de l’entorn sanitari. En Jeffrey Harris, economista i metge, professor del MIT i internista al Hospital General de Massachussets va escriure l’any 1977 un extraordinari article titulat: “L’organització interna dels hospitals, algunes implicacions econòmiques”. He de confesar que va ser un dels primers articles d’economia de la salut que vaig llegir i que em va impactar. Però no tant sols a mi, és un dels articles més referenciats que hi ha a data d’avui. Essencialment en Jeffrey Harris va dir en altres paraules, algunes coses que sabem els que hem estat gerents d’hospital. Ell suggeria que l’hospital en realitat són dues empreses: l’administrativa i la mèdica. En aquesta organització dual hi ha un conjunt de regles implícites d’assignació de recursos. La controvèrsia es produeix quan la demanda mèdica supera la capacitat oferta per l’administrativa. Ens enfoquem massa a analitzar la part administrativa i no tant a la mèdica. I acabava assenyalant que cal una nova organització interna dels hospitals.
Ara si hagués de reescriure l’article ben segur que aniria més enllà dels hospitals i pensaria en organitzacions sanitàries integrades. Considero que en Harris va encertar en el diagnòstic però es va quedar curt en la teràpia, es va quedar a mitges. Cal repensar molt seriosament la posició dels metges dins l’organització sanitària. Estic convençut que l’encaix actual grinyola força, i les propostes per avançar són limitades. Després d’observar models alternatius, he arribat al convenciment que la relació laboral de la professió mèdica dins un conveni col.lectiu difícilment encaixa amb la realitat de la tasca, el talent i els resultats que se n’esperen. Si dins la relació laboral en tinc dubtes, imagineu els que tindré si hi ha una atribució funcionarial vitalícia, en propietat, com en diuen. A data d’avui encara tinc pendent de trobar algú que em justifiqui que un metge ha de ser funcionari amb un argument convincent.
Per tal d’enfocar una visió alternativa, cal comprendre la professió mèdica en el marc organitzatiu del sistema de salut amb les coordenades inherents del professionalisme.
Cal ser precisos en el que estem parlant. Entenc el professionalisme més enllà de l’autonomia estricta i esbiaxada que alguns defensen. Per professionalisme vull dir: (1) Altruïsme, en cas de conflicte d’interès entre interessos professionals i els dels pacients, cal decantar-se en favor dels pacients, (2) un compromís en la millora, els professionals han d’actualitzar-se en el nou coneixement i la seva incorporació a la pràctica (3) revisió entre col.legues, els metges han de ser capaços de supervisar el treball dels col.legues, per protegir els pacients i (4) els metges han d’incorporar el criteri d’eficiència social a les decisions clíniques.
És aquí on l’argument de l’organització dual d’en Harris em sembla oportuna. Què succeiria si en el marc d’una organització sanitària integrada o d’una regió sanitària, s’establís una societat professional que contracta exclusivament realitzar l’activitat dins els seus centres?. Aleshores, tindríem l’organització dual formalitzada, la societat professional rebria els seus ingressos en un pagament capitatiu anual, part del capitatiu total que reb l’organització sanitària integrada, qui alhora mantindria la seva relació laboral per als altres llocs de treball. La societat professional contractaria metges i els assignaria llocs de treball amb salaris competitius, que més enllà de la base, es compensés per la qualitat clínica i satisfacció. L’organització sanitària integrada compartiria informació amb la societat professional per avaluar els resultats en salut.
I un pot dir, això existeix?. És el cas d’algunes organitzacions no lucratives com Group Health o Kaiser Permanente. Més aprop també tenim exemples parcials. Estic convençut que el model de relació actual està caducat i que això que proposo necessita calibratge fi, en termes legals i d’avaluació de cada context. Cal tenir present a més, que seguir com ho tenim ara consolida una altra realitat que també coneixem prou bé, la pràctica dual públic-privada, la pluriocupació.
Si pensem en una integració assistencial exitosa, ens cal que la coordinació i motivació en l’àmbit clínic sigui màxima. A l’actualitat, molts dels avenços obtinguts han tingut relació amb la capacitat de lideratge i la cultura organitzativa, malgrat que els incentius explícits han estat escassos. La prova definitiva que pot arribar-se més enllà en la integració és quan els professionals s’impliquen perquè més enllà dels atributs del professionalisme, senten que el seu esforç es veu compensat i respectat. Molt sovint, la segona qüestió pren més importància que la primera, vull dir que el respecte ocupa una posició superior a la compensació material. Valorar el treball ben fet, reconèixer-lo, esdevé fonamental en l’entorn professional. En això, la societat professional és capaç de fer-ho millor que tal com ho fa la part administrativa de l’organització avui en dia.
L’atenció centrada en la persona fruit del treball professional en equip ha de focalitzar a presa de decisions. Segurament aquesta atenció haurà d’anar acompanyada d’una petita empenta, el nudging que diu Cass Sunstein. Aquells que vau sentir el meu discurs el desembre passat a la sessió sobre el Pla de Salut ja sabeu al que em refereixo. Altrament, el podeu trobar en el meu blog, Econsalut.
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Fins aquí sobre drets de decisió i incentius. Ens resta un capítol fonamental sobre avaluació dels resultats, el tercer fonament de l’organització. Recordeu allò de “només es gestiona allò que és mesura”, i jo hi afegiria, que en algunes vegades ni així. El sector salut disposa avui d’una quantitat extraordinària de dades que permeten mostrar-ne els resultats. Hi ha més dades que la capacitat cognitiva per comprendre el que diuen. L’exercici de transparència des de la Central de Resultats hi ajuda encara més. La qüestió fonamental no és tenir dades, és comprendre quin impacte poden tenir, com fan canviar les decisions i la pràctica. I per això necessitem lligar una vegada més amb els incentius. Si no som capaços de donar senyals que cal un aprenentatge i millora continuada en la línia dels capdavanters en excel.lència, pot passar que l’exercici de transparència no tingui impacte. Les implicacions per tant són de cadascú, cada òrgan de govern, cada directiu, cada clínic. Tothom hi té una part en la tasca de transformar l’avaluació dels resultats en millora continuada.
Tot el que he estat assenyalant fins ara es troba en un entorn determinat, que és el de la regulació, de la tecnologia i dels mercats. Hem de comprendre i fer que aquest entorn ajudi a la transformació organitzativa. En l’aspecte regulatori, hem viscut sovint amb una ficció que teníem competències plenes en sanitat. Sabem que la regulació laboral, la regulació professional, i tantes altres s’escapen de la nostra capacitat de decisió. És més, limiten seriosament els possibles avenços que caldrien per situar l’organització sanitària al segle XXI. Un Estat nou ha de prendre en consideració molt seriosament aquestes qüestions.
La tecnologia ens podria ocupar molta estona i només hi faré una breu referència. Estem assistint a un canvi profund en la “funció de producció de salut”. El darrer llibre del cardiòleg Eric Topol es titula “El pacient t’atendrà”, vol assenyalar les noves capacitats de decisió dels pacients amb la seva malaltia. Evidentment es tracta d’una provocació, en la mesura que un va avançant en el llibre, explica la importància de la professió mèdica davant la nova complexitat d’informació i coneixement ingent. La medicina estratificada o de precisió està començant i no podem restar-ne al marge, la tenim entre nosaltres i cal que ens preguntem si estem disposats a que sigui la tecnologia la que canviï les organitzacions o si som nosaltres els que hem de comandar aquest canvi des de les pròpies organitzacions. Personalment crec que ens cal aplicar-nos seriosament per identificar quin és el millor model organitzatiu per a la nova medicina, abans que la nova medicina ens hagi condicionat a tots plegats. Hi som a temps, però anem endarrerits. Per ara, sóc incapaç de veure cap reflexió profunda en aquest sentit aquí aprop.
Els mercats és una paraula que desperta passió en alguns, aquells que hi posen connotacions morals. Per als economistes és tant sols un lloc on es troba el que compra i el que ven, l’oferta i la demanda. I així tenim, mercats de treball, mercats de productes i serveis, mercats de capital. Voldria fer esment del mercat de treball de directius. Captar i retenir el més gran talent ha de ser un objectiu clar del sistema de salut i més en concret pels òrgans de govern. Hem sofert una forta erosió, fruit de la interferència polititzada en la presa de decisions directives i també d’una pèrdua de salaris competitius. Aquest fet dissuadeix determinat talent i finalment tots hi perdem. La reflexió seriosa obliga a que els òrgans de govern facin el seu paper per cercar el talent i s’eviti completament altra tipus d’interferència.
Fins ara he parlat del repte organitzatiu en la provisió dels serveis. Seria un error, oblidar que convé un canvi organitzatiu profund en el nivell del parlament i del govern. Algunes de les dificultats que observem, sorgeixen del trasllat de problemes en cascada cap avall. La forma com s’organitza la presa de decisions col.lectives en un parlament em preocupa perquè estem davant d’un model desfassat. La “funció de producció” de lleis i de controlar el govern actual és lluny de ser la més eficient. Només cal observar el butlletí del parlament per comprendre com es confon allò que és política i el que és gestió i que correspon als órgans de govern. I aquesta confusió és deliberada per tal d’obtenir-ne rèdits personals i de partit, titulars als mitjans que apareixen sovint volgudament distorsionats. Alhora el govern necessita repensar la seva “funció de producció”, cercar la simplificació administrativa i concentrar-se en nous mecanismes de coordinació i incentius més efectius que els actuals.
Aquí voldria assenyalar la importància dels sistemes de pagament i de la seguretat jurídica a les empreses públiques. Les formes de compensació a les organitzacions sanitàries integrades i dins d’elles a cada proveïdor són un element cabdal de disseny organitzatiu. Però alhora els sistemes d’incentius ha de preservar determinats principis. El més important de tots és que ha de garantir que el rescat dels ineficients no surti de franc. És allò que els economistes en diem moral hazard. Quan hi ha una cobertura última de qualsevol desgavell financer, sense cap responsabilitat assignada, aleshores hi ha un incentiu al dèficit. O vist d’una altra manera, quan aquells que són molt eficients, cada vegada s’els augmenta més el nivell d’exigència, i no tenen contrapartida favorable aleshores el sistema esdevé pervers (en economia en diem efecte ratchet). Tots sabem que tenim exemples del primer cas i del segon. Estic convençut que us venen al cap. I això no és admissible i ha durat massa anys. Ens ha afeblit el sistema.
El sistema de pagament ha de ser capaç d’aliniar les decisions i comportaments de tots els actors cap un objectiu de salut col.lectiva. Dit altrament, cal contractar la millora de la salut poblacional. Personalment em preocupa la proposta actual, perquè no observo que els comportaments i decisions dels actors es puguin aliniar convenientment. És una proposta difusa, complexa, però ara no puc entrar en més detalls.
El govern ha de ser capaç de limitar la incertesa del model jurídic de les empreses públiques. L’impacte de les normes comptables europees SEC-2010 ha estat enorme. Mai no hauria pogut imaginar que la comptabilitat fos capaç de canviar un model sanitari. I ha estat així. I això no s’ha acabat. La directiva europea sobre contractació pública del 2014, sitúa a abril 2016 com el moment de l’aplicació generalitzada de concursos. Un fet que ha aixecat profunda preocupació a Gran Bretanya, fins el punt que els laboristes han dit que demanaran l’exempció si guanyen les eleccions avui.
Algunes de les qüestions que assenyalo, són abordables des d’un Estat nou, d’altres són possibles avui. Les més crucials es refereixen estrictament a un Estat nou, i esdevé una condició necessària per a poder avançar.
Condició necessària però no suficient, que diríem. Perquè ens cal consens. Ens cal consens polític, professional i ciutadà. Ho dic senzillament com una observació que sorgeix dels sistemes sanitaris d’èxit, aquells on el consens és ampli. Sabeu que em va correspondre de coordinar el Pacte Nacional de Salut. I voldria assenyalar-vos que aquesta va ser una història d’èxit, si, una història d’èxit. Molts es van dedicar a explicar el contrari i van reeixir en l’intent. Va ser d’èxit perquè aquells que van desertar no van mostrar un argument convincent dels motius de la fugida i la majoria d’actors van mantenir-se ferms. Mireu, uns es van retirar per temes que no havien estat tractats, uns altres per acords que mai no es van prendre, fins i tot fa unes setmanes ho tornava a llegir astorat a la premsa. Va ser un èxit perquè totes les organitzacions presents, excepte una patronal, els sindicats i els partits que no donen suport al govern se’n van desentendre i excepcionalment només algú va oferir un argument fonamentat. Tenim un problema de responsabilitat, participació i representativitat. Cal admetre-ho i ens cal resoldre’l per tal que el consens sigui possible quan abans millor.
Donar resposta als reptes organitzatius que he esmentat requereix un consens profund i ens cal llaurar el terreny per tal que això sigui novament possible ben aviat.
La Unió va tenir un paper destacat en el marc del Pacte Nacional de Salut, i us vull agrair sincerament la vostra contribució. Encara que us pugui semblar rar, estic convençut que en algun moment reprendrem la tasca i serem capaços d’anar més enllà.
Arribats aquí algú em diria, Pere, no has parlat de privatització. Us puc dir que no puc parlar d’allò que no existeix. En economia privatitzar significa vendre els actius públics a empreses privades, però no cal anar a l’economia, només mireu la wikipedia. I com que això no s’ha produït, ni intueixo que es produeixi, aleshores és irrellevant. En George Lakoff, el del llibre “No pensis en un elefant”, em diria: Pere has caigut a la trampa. Quan dius que no en parles de privatització, ja n’estàs parlant. La supressió del terme privatització en aquest moment en el nostre cervell esdevé impossible. Tots hi esteu pensant. Hi ha un problema d’engany i segrest interessat de les paraules per a un interès particular que condiciona la percepció general de la població i hem de ser capaços de pensar críticament en tot moment i no caure en els paranys cognitius que ens posen al davant.
El repte organitzatiu que tenim davant va més enllà del sistema de salut. El parlament ha de confluir en un debat respectuós, profund, fonamentat, que busqui el consens i eviti la polarització; el govern ha de captar el més gran talent per a una regulació i gestió del conjunt del sistema; les organitzacions han de donar resposta a l’atenció de qualitat amb un nou marc de referència; els clínics han d’encaixar a l’organització guiats pel professionalisme; els ciutadans han d’assumir la responsabilitat davant la seva salut i fer sentir la seva veu per tal de contribuir a la millora del sistema.
Aquesta conferència ja la podeu trobar al meu blog: econsalut, que precisament ara s’acaba de penjar.
***
El món del jazz va tenir un gran clarinetista i director d’orquestra, l’Artie Shaw aquell que va popularitzar el “Beguin the beguine”. El vam tenir uns anys vivint ben aprop, a Begur. Tenia molt bon gust i sabia on s’havia d’anar els anys 50. El títol del documental on s’evocava la seva vida es titulava “Temps és tot el que tens”. Toca doncs aprofitar l’oportunitat, el moment.
Moltes gràcies. 

Referències
http://www.datosmacro.com/pib/espana-comunidades-autonomas/cataluna
http://catsalut.gencat.cat/web/.content/minisite/catsalut/coneix_catsalut/informacio_economica/documents/arxius/despesa_sanitaria.pdf
http://www.ara.cat/firmes/antoni_bassas/Protegim-sanitat-catalana-Leditorial-Bassas_0_1348065333.html
http://webs.academia.cat/pages/academ/vidaacad/publica/Annals/2004/A4/debat2.htm
http://www.mit.edu/people/jeffrey/Harris_Internal_Org_Hospitals_Bell_J_1977.pdf
http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.21.4.135






27 d’abril 2015

We are not alone

Procurement and competition rules. Can the NHS be exempted?

Public procurement rules in the EU follow a weird path under ESA-2010 accounting rules. You can check it on p.22 of the Manual on Government Deficit and Debt. Implementation of ESA 2010. and the decision tree in p.25 showing a complex labyrinth.
This is the reason why in the UK (p.2 of the Kings Fund Report):
If Labour wins the general election, it has committed to repealing the procurement and competition provisions in the Health and Social Care Act 2012, including the  Procurement, Patient Choice and Competition Regulations made under Section 75 of the Act.
And even more than that:
In his speech at The King’s Fund on 27th January, Andy Burnham, Shadow Secretary of State for Health, committed to ‘claiming a full exemption for the NHS from EU procurement and competition law’
This is precisely the reason why we should do the same and put all the effort to succeed in our attempt. We have to ask for full exemption from rules created for a different purpose and adjust them appropriately to our health context. These are rules created for public accountants that constraint adequate decision making. Accounting is devoted to measurement of the costs and benefits of decisions. Rules for decision control are related to governance and audit procedures, not accounting. This is the main reason why we should ask for exemption, they were created from a wrong perspective.
We are not alone in this position, in the NHS they are concerned with the same problema.

25 d’abril 2015

Hommage a l'Arménie



Jordi Savall et Hesperion XX. L'Esprit de l'Arménie. Hier a Istanbul


Sans Émotion il n'y a pas de Mémoire, sans Mémoire il n'y a pas de Justice, sans Justice il n'y a pas de Civilisation, et sans Civilisation l'être humain n'a pas de futur.

L'Arménie est une des plus anciennes civilisations chrétiennes de l'orient, qui a survécu miraculeusement à une histoire convulsive et particulièrement tragique. Depuis sa fondation, elle se situe politiquement et géographiquement au milieu d'autres grandes cultures imprégnées par des croyances orientales et par la pensée musulmane et a vécu une histoire très douloureuse, ponctuée par des guerres et des massacres extrêmes, qui ont causé la disparition de plus de la moitié de sa population, l'exil de beaucoup d'autres et la perte de grandes parties de son territoire. Malgré cela elle a su conserver l'essence de ses particularités nationales tout au long des siècles, comme le prouve surtout la création de son propre alphabet (en 405 par le moine Mesrop Machtots) et comme le montre aussi son riche patrimoine architectural, éparpillé aujourd'hui, même en dehors de ses territoires actuels. Bien que ce patrimoine tangible en soit un des témoignages les plus frappants, elle a aussi gardé un riche patrimoine intangible, dans le domaine musical: un répertoire très riche et très différencié mais malheureusement assez peu connu (à part celui du duduk).

De toutes les cultures développées, la musique – représentée par certains instruments comme par les manières de chanter et de jouer qui peuvent la concrétiser –, devient le reflet spirituel le plus fidèle de l'âme et de l'Histoire des peuples. De tous les instruments utilisés dans ses anciennes traditions musicales, l'Arménie a accordé une préférence particulière à un instrument unique : le duduk, à tel point qu'on peut affirmer que cet instrument la définit d'une manière presque absolue. Dès l'écoute des premiers sons de ces instruments – habituellement ils se jouent en duo – la qualité (presque vocale) et la douceur de ses vibrations nous transportent dans un univers élégiaque et poétique hors norme, et nous entrainent dans une dimension intime et profonde. La musique devient ainsi un véritable baume, à la fois sensuel et spirituel, capable de toucher directement notre âme et, en la caressant, de la guérir de toutes les blessures et de tous les chagrins.

PS Le déni turc.

PS. Health care in Armenia

24 d’abril 2015

A successful implementation of a bad idea

Since 2012 it hasn't been posible to know the price of new drugs funded by NHS. The government considers that they are confidential. This is a clear example of what exactly means transparency and the application of the rule of law. Meanwhile a new strategy has been put into place. Without public prices, the government has decided to set budget ceilings for several innovative drugs: pertuzumab, ivakaftor, telaprevir/simeprevir, abiraterona, pirfenidona y ruxolitinib. And the last one is new drugs for hepatitis C, defined as "therapeutic group" not as a specific molecule. Following this strategy there is a proposal to extend such a model of budget ceilings by ATC, therapeutic classification.
This is really a bad idea that is already being implemented. As you know sometimes there are good ideas badly implemented, and therefore criticized. But in this case, it is a bad idea with a scrupulous implementation. Some officials consider that if they set a budget ceiling, all decisions will be taken  to fit in with it. Clinical decisions follow a different path, not the mechanical and administrative way officials are used to.
The measure represents a tough hit to economic evaluation, because in the next future the government will not be any longer interested in it. Why? Their only concern is about the budget ceiling, the value doesn't matter. A missed opportunity for the development of priority setting under a rational scheme. Health economists should react to such a big mistake.
The saddest  issue is that nobody knows what will happen when the budget ceiling is surpassed. This will be the job for the next government, nobody cares about it right now. Democracy and rule of law are only words subject to interpretation.

PS. All the details about hepatitis C controversy at Boletín AES.

PS. Understanding the foundations of confidential drug pricing, in Forbes.

PS. Explained at Health Affairs:


International Best Practices For Negotiating 'Reimbursement Contracts' With Price Rebates From Pharmaceutical Companies
By: Morgan, Steven; Daw, Jamie; Thomson, Paige
HEALTH AFFAIRS  Volume: 32   Issue: 4   Pages: 771-777   Published: APR 2013
 Abstract

Reimbursement contracts, in which health insurers receive rebates from drug manufacturers instead of paying the transparent list price, are becoming increasingly common worldwide. Through interviews with policy makers in nine high-income countries, we describe the use of these contracts around the globe and identify related policy challenges and best practices. Of the nine countries surveyed, the majority routinely use confidential reimbursement contracts. This alternative to drug coverage at list prices offers benefits but is not without challenges. Payers face increased administrative costs, difficulties enforcing contracts, and reduced information about prices paid by others. Among the best practices identified, policy makers recommend establishing clear and consistent processes for negotiating contracts with relatively simple rebate structures and transparency to the public about the existence, purpose, and type of reimbursement contracts in place. Policy makers should also work to address undesirable price disparities within their countries and internationally, which may occur as a result of this new pricing paradigm.


21 d’abril 2015

What clinicians do and why they do it

The Nature of Clinical Medicine. The return of the clinician

Nowadays, technology pervades media and our live. This is a good moment to rethink the basics, the foundations of medicine, its values and goals. Eric Cassell contributes decisively to this aim with his new book, a must read at least for physicians and all professionals related with medicine.
Health economists should be aware of better understanding  about the goals of medicine and purposes of physicians. They reflect the true "production function".
Here is a brief summary of the book and afterwards its goals and purposes:

Clinical medicine, as a thinking discipline, is concerned not only with what clinicians do, but why. When physicians act in medicine they have some purpose or goal in mind. What they actually do and how they go about it is in the service of their purposes and their goals. Such goals cover a wide range of topics centering on patients, the doctor-patient relationship, the acts of doctoring patients, and the goals involved in being a physician among other physicians working within the institutions of medicine.

The Nature of Clinical Medicine takes its direction from a catalog of goals of medicine that range from the expected diagnosis and treatment of diseases to wider concerns for patients, for physicians, and for medicine itself. The chapters are specific in teaching the kinds of knowledge that clinicians require in order to be able to achieve these goals. The central focus of the clinician and of this book is the patient. According to Eric Cassell, everything else, including the disease, is secondary.
Summary of the Goals of Medicine

A. Patient-centered goals

1. Save life.
2. Prolong life.
3. Cure disease.
4. Prevent suffering.
5. Relieve suffering.
6. Do no harm.
7. Protect the patient from danger.
8. Do not frighten the patient.
9. Relieve the patient’s fears.
10. Make the patient better in the patient’s terms.
11. Do nothing unnecessary (or more than necessary). B. Goals related to the physician–patient relationship
12. Develop and maintain a good relationship.
13. Be trustworthy.
14. Tell the truth.
15. Be reliable.
16. Be constant.
17. Be there when needed.
18. Make a difference.

C. Goals related directly to doctoring the patient

19. Make a diagnosis (where pertinent make a tissue diagnosis).
20. Decide what the problem is.
21. Obtain the necessary information.
22. Make sense of the case (in pathophysiological, anatomical, psychological, and social terms).
23. Decide the correct treatment and its timing.

D. Goals related to being a physician among other physicians

24. Seek and maintain comprehensive knowledge.
25. Maintain the standards of medicine.
26. See that things are done right.
27. Protect the patient from bad medicine and incompetent physicians.
28. Behave in a proper, doctorly manner.
29. Look good to other physicians and the patient and family.
30. Avoid error.
31. Avoid blame.
32. Maintain relationships with peers.
33. Stay alive in the institution (hospital or medical school) and community

The relationship between purposes or goals and values (p.166). Five kind of goals:
  1. Specific obligations to other people or institutions—patients, other caregivers, or the hospital
  2. Responses to rights that everybody has, for example, the right to refuse treatment, or to freedom from assault or coercion.
  3. Purposes based in what might be called utility. Things pursued because of the benefit to the patient, or the avoidance of injury. Also purposes directed at general benefit, like the advance of medical knowledge.
  4. Purposes related to what might be called self-development values. Here, there is intrinsic value in acquiring a particular piece of knowledge or skill because it is believed to be part of the general good if even one person has special knowledge. The goal of acquiring a particular knowledge or ability lies in this arena of values.
  5. Purposes related to one’s own project in life, like becoming a good clinician apart from, for example, the acquisition of a specific skill  or the general advance of medical knowledge

15 d’abril 2015

Tapering mechanisms for hospital payment

Tapering payments in hospitals

In Germany, payment to hospitals is based on DRGs. This means that there are some estimateas of specific relative weights and an expected volume of cases. The base rate is the pivotal element of the system. Health insurers want to avoid any surprise on their budget ceilings. Therefore some criteria in paying hospitals is the key to accomplish the budget. And what they do is the following:
Any increase in activity volume (based on the case-mix) compared to year t-1 within the range of negotiated volumes for year t is reimbursed at rate tapered by 25% (rate in force in 2013 and 2014) 
The tapering criteria is also known in our country as marginal payments, the amount that it is paid beyond a certain ceiling of discharges or visits.
Tapering is always controversial, because it may be applied to volume or to the costs (through shrinking the base rate). In both situations it is difficult to have a clear verdict of wether there is too much suplier induced demand, or just an epidemic (?).
Therefore if appropriateness criteria are not in place, the result can be anything but the fair: penalising efficient hospitals or incentivising waste.
I have always been concerned about marginal payments. A recent OECD report on this topic describes current practices and puts some caution in its application. As far as this is the first report that informs us about these practices, I specially recommend it to those officials reponsible for the issue.

PS. OECD Graph of the month. Slowdown in health spending in Europe has affected all spending categories, particularly pharmaceuticals and prevention


13 d’abril 2015

Physician self-referral: a call for action

Physician Self-referral: Regulation by Exceptions

In 2002 a new agreement was published in internal medicine reviews on Medical Professionalism in the New Millennium: A Physician Charter. Some years ago I posted the same issue. Today, I would like to highlight three points again:

  • Commitment to professional responsibilities. As members of a profession, physicians are expected to work collaboratively to maximize patient care, be respectful of one another, and participate in the processes of self-regulation, including remediation and discipline of members who have failed to meet professional standards. The profession should also define and organize the educational and standard-setting process for current and future members. Physicians have both individual and collective obligations to participate in these processes. These obligations include engaging in internal assessment and accepting external scrutiny of all aspects of their professional performance.
  • Commitment to maintaining trust by managing conflicts of interest. Medical professionals and their organizations have many opportunities to compromise their professional responsibilities by pursuing private gain or personal advantage. Such compromises are especially threatening in the pursuit of personal or organizational interactions with for-profit industries, including medical equipment manufacturers, insurance companies, and pharmaceutical firms. Physicians have an obligation to recognize, disclose to the general public, and deal with conflicts of interest that arise in the course of their professional duties and activities. Relationships between industry and opinion leaders should be disclosed, especially when the latter determine the criteria for conducting and reporting clinical trials, writing editorials or therapeutic guidelines, or serving as editors of scientific journals
  • Commitment to maintaining appropriate relations with patients. Given the inherent vulnerability and dependency of patients, certain relationships between physicians and patients must be avoided. In particular, physicians should never exploit patients for any sexual advantage, personal financial gain, or other private purpose.
 After reading JAMA article on physician self-referrals in US, definitely I have to say that this principles are far to be applied. The size of the resources coming from self-referrals is continously increasing despite the existing regulation for decades. The article puts a lot of expectations on changing the payment system, from fee-for-service towards value-based payments to curb the situation. I'm not so confident on this tool, because its implementation is far from optimal.
Anyway this is a difficult issue, and the same happens to dual practice in general. Some weeks ago a new resolution on how to handle conflicts of interest between public and private care was released. Two different concerns appear on my mind. The first is when any patient that decides to start a private treatment, then there is no option to go back to the public sector. He rejects explicitly public coverage. This statement may be appropriate for those patients on public waiting lists, but its application to other situations may be fuzzy. The second relates to information by the healthcare faciliy to patients about benefits and rights. I'm uncertain about how this can be applied without biases, without interference of physicians. My suggestion would be to use more transparent and centralised ways to inform patients through internet.
Unfortunately what I missed is precisely any regulation on physician self-referrals, the core of the problem. This affects publicly funded -in case of dual practice- and private care. Somebody should have a clear position on that. In my opinion, it should start by physicians associations. Self-regulation is a better starting point than any ban on this practice. As you may deduct easily, the general application of the former physician charter would solve this issue.

10 d’abril 2015

This is unsustainable

Demystifying Sustainability

My position is clear and I have said it several times before: the use of the term sustainability is misleading. From an economics point of view, the term should be "dynamic efficiency", keyed by Schumpeter long time ago. However an environmentalist term entered into our language and now we can't disentangle what it really means. That's why initially it is welcome a new book on this topic written by an environmentalist that beyond the concept it focuses on the solutions in these issues:
1 Worldview, ethics, values and ideologies
2 Redesigning ourselves to enable change
3 Population
4 Consumerism and the growth economy
5 Solving climate change
6 Appropriate technology: a renewable future
7 Reducing poverty and inequality
8 Education and communication
9 The politics of it all!
For each issue you'll find what you can do. Unfortunately, there are too many issues to be covered in only one book without any reference to incentives and dynamic efficiency or market design...

Finally it says
Can we demystify ‘sustainability’?
Yes we can, we can demystify ‘sustainability’. The key step is to accept reality, accept the gravity of our predicament, roll back denial, and rapidly put in place the solution frameworks covered above.
Sounds a little bit naïf again. Nature and social behaviour are more complex to be solved this way. A simple recipe is not enough. A better transdisciplinary understanding is needed. I'll continue to refrain from the use of term sustainability.

PS. What is really unsustainaible-irrrrrrresistible is precisely what happened yesterday in our Parliament on this topic.  An horrendous example of an outdated political style. Citizens are demanding to tackle real problems, not more political shows. The future of population health policy starts with consensus. Again, my position is clear. If you don't understand exactly what I mean, have a look at this excellent book by Neil Postman:



09 d’abril 2015

Public Health Priorities

Start Well, Live Better: A Manifesto for the Public’s Health. London: UK Faculty of Public Health, 2014

These are the 12 suggested priorities for public health in UK for the next 5 years:

Give every child a good start in life
  • Give all babies the best possible start in life by implementing the recommendations of the 1001 Critical Days cross-party report
  • Help children and young people develop essential life skills and make Personal, Social, Health and Economic, and Sex and Relationship Education a statutory duty in all schools
  • Promote healthy, active lifestyles in children and young people by reinstating at least 2 h per week of physical activity in all schools
Introduce good laws to prevent bad health and save lives
  • Protect our children by stopping the marketing of foods high in sugar, salt and fat before the 9 pm watershed on TV, and tighten the regulations for online marketing
  • Introduce a 20% duty on sugar-sweetened beverages as an important measure to tackle obesity and dental
  • caries—particularly in children
  • Tackle alcohol-related harm by introducing a minimum unit price for alcohol of at least 50 p per unit of alcohol sold
  • Save lives through the rapid implementation of standardised tobacco packaging
  • Set 20 m.p.h. as the maximum speed limit in built-up areas to cut road deaths and injuries, and reduce inequalities
Help people live healthier lives
  • Enable people to achieve a good quality of life, health and wellbeing—give everyone in paid employment and training a ‘living wage’
  • Reaffirm commitment to universal healthcare system, free at the point of use, funded by general taxation
Take national action to tackle a global problem
  • Invest in public transport and active transport to promote good health, and reduce our impact on climate change
  • Implement a cross-national approach to meet climate change targets, including a rapid move to 100% renewables and a zero-carbon energy system
As you can see, many similar things with our PINSAP, the Health Policy Consensus and Health Plan. However, after yesterday news the pending issue of our public health is mainly alcohol abuse. We should focus on what works to reduce alcohol and addictive substance abuse. And first of all, we need to understand the foundations and best approaches to the problem. I would suggest you have a look at this book and specially this one:


PS. Binge drinking 'costing UK taxpayers £4.9bn'  Does anybody know how much does it cost here???

PS. In Spain, publicly funded health expenditure reached 64.150 million € in 2012,the amount for financial system bailout was 101.283 million € (p.24). Don't forget it: these are the priorities.

01 d’abril 2015

Healthcare satisfaction guaranteed

La veu de la ciutadania: Com la percepció de la ciutadania es vincula a la millora dels serveis sanitaris i el sistema de salut de Catalunya

In Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (1970), the book written by Albert O. Hirschman, you finally understand that the ultimatum that confronts consumers in the face of deteriorating quality of goods is either “exit” or “voice”. Exit is equivalent to the invisible hand of markets in Adam Smith. The greater the availability of exit, the less likely voice will be used. However, loyalty may modulate the final impact. Loyal members become especially devoted to the organization's success when their voice will be heard and that they can reform it.
Under mandatory publicly funded health insurance, the role of voice is specially relevant to fulfill citizens expectations. The efforts to measure patient satisfaction provide precise information on this issue. Now you can find an excellent report that summarises recent trends under a strict methodology.
The results (from p.65) are clear: currently the levels of satisfaction with public health services are higher than at the begining of the crisis. I have already posted about the same before, however what you'll find today as headlines in the newspapers is exactly the opposite. Journalism ethics is not currently in its best days. As citizens we deserve better consideration.
Fortunately, internet allows to bypass journalists ("exit" in Hirshman words), though it requires a dose of extra effort and only a minor part of the population is prone to assume it.
If healthcare satisfaction is rising, as it is, then no need for exit, citizens will remain loyal.

PS. In case of severe disease, voluntary health insured members would use private services in 32% of cases, while public sevices in 39% of cases. P.9 of the barometer.

PS. Journalism ethics: Seek Truth and Report It

31 de març 2015

Piketty's nuances

After selling 1.5 million books, now Piketty says:
The way in which I perceive the relationship between r>g and inequality is often not well captured in the discussion that has surrounded my book. For example, I do not view r>g as the only or even the primary tool for considering changes in income and wealth in the twentieth century, or for forecasting the path of inequality in the twenty-first century. Institutional changes and political shocks— which to a large extent can be viewed as endogenous to the inequality and development process itself—played a major role in the past, and it will probably be the same in the future.
His obsession with taxation remains:
In my book, I propose a simple rule of thumb to think about optimal wealth tax rates. Namely, one should adapt the tax ratesto the observed speed at which the different wealth groups are rising over time.
One of the main conclusions of my research is indeed that there is substantial uncertainty about how far income and wealth inequality might rise in the twenty-first century, and that we need more financial transparency and better information about income and wealth dynamics, so that we can adapt our policies and institutions to a changing environment. This might require better international fiscal coordination, which is difficult but by no means impossible.
Why is he focusing strictly on taxation, while admitting that institutional changes and political shocks play a major role?

So what?. Maybe the inequality explanation lies on housing wealth... and not on the return on capital. Anyway, the profitability from the book -for Piketty- is huge, and the solutions remain uncertain.

PS: WSJ, The economist,

PS. From the last Sistema Nacional de Salud report p.170:
"Extremadura con 9,5% de gasto sanitario público sobre el PIB, junto con Cantabria con 8,3% y Murcia con 7,9% fueron las comunidades autónomas que presentaron en el año 2012 el porcentaje más elevado. En el extremo opuesto se encontraba Madrid con el 4,1% de gasto sanitario público sobre el PIB y Cataluña con 4,9."
These are facts, not opinions. Now you can understand why we want to leave from this state soon,  double of public budget over GDP under the same taxation system!. Unacceptable. Good bye!

30 de març 2015

The tragedy of commonsense morality

Moral Tribes: Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them

The suggestion by Joshua Green in his book "Moral Tribes" is to put our gut reactions aside, and rely on our utilitarian moral compass for direction. There are two fundamental moral problems. Me versus Us is the basic problem of cooperation. Our brains solve this problem primarily with emotion and thanks to these automatic settings, we succeed in this controversy. However complex moral problems are about the latter, Us versus Them,-between tribes, not within tribes-.

The morality concept:
 Morality is a set of psychological adaptations that allow otherwise selfish individuals to reap the benefits of cooperation
The fact:
Two moral tragedies threaten human well-being. The original tragedy is the Tragedy of the Commons. This is a tragedy of selfishness, a failure of individuals to put Us ahead of Me. Morality is nature’s solution to this problem. The new tragedy, the modern tragedy, is the Tragedy of Commonsense Morality, the problem of life on the new pastures. Here morality is undoubtedly part of the solution, but it’s also part of the problem. In the modern tragedy, the very same moral thinking that enables cooperation within groups undermines cooperation between groups. Within each tribe, the herders of the new pastures are bound together by their moral ideals. But the tribes themselves are divided by their moral ideals. This is unfortunate, but it should come as no surprise, given the conclusion of the last section: Morality did not evolve to promote universal cooperation. On the contrary, it evolved as a device for successful intergroup competition. In other words, morality evolved to avert the Tragedy of the Commons, but it did not evolve to avert the Tragedy of Commonsense Morality.
This is a very interesting and intricate book that requires rereading. There are strong implications for health economics. His recommendations, to be discussed (some day), are the following ones:

The six rules for modern herders:
  • 1. In the face of moral controversy, consult but do not trust, your instincts.
  • 2. Rights are not for making arguments; they are for ending arguments
  • 3. Focus on the facts and make others do the same
  • 4. Beware of biased fairness
  • 5. Use common currency
  • 6. Give


PS. You may apply his arguments to the current political nightmare, and it fits perfectly.

26 de març 2015

The identified person bias

Identified versus Statistical Lives: An Interdisciplinary Perspective


The concept:
The identified person bias: A greater inclination to assist (and avoid harming) persons and groups identified as those at high risk of great harm than to assist (and avoid harming) persons and groups who will suffer (or already suffer) similar harm but are not identified (as yet).
 The issues:
  1. When precisely does the identified person bias arise? And what exactly does it consist in? For example, is it simply a matter of a very human response to the vivid human faces of people with personal stories, in the hospital ward or on TV screens? Is it something that arises only when the risks are known, only under strict  uncertainty, or regardless of how much we can specify the risk? Does that bias arise only when few victims are involved?
  2. What, if anything, might justify giving priority to identified persons at risk?
  3. What would be the practical implications for law, public health, medicine, and the environment of accepting the priority given to identified persons, or of forsaking it—if we could successfully do so?
The book, a must read:




25 de març 2015

Don't think of privatization

Let's do a little thought experiment today.
Close your eyes. Imagine a privatized healthcare consortium as vividly as you can. It is clear! Is it? There are private owners. Or seems to be some officials geting dividends?

Now, I want you to NOT think about privatization. Think of anything else but privatisation. Try it for a few minutes.

What are you thinking of? How many times did the privatization issue cross your mind? Quite a few times, right?

Now, close your eyes again and try to think about what you did for today? Who you met? Where you went? Anything interesting happened when you were traveling? What did you eat for breakfast/lunch? Try it for a few minutes.

How many times did you think of privatization? None? Maybe once or twice especially since I asked this question?
This is an exercise that shows that suppressing your thoughts in your mind doesn't really work. When we try not to think about something and try to suppress it, our minds keep going back to the same thoughts. This is a well known experiment from Wegner et al. (Wegner, D. M., Schneider, D. J., Carter, S. R., & White, T. L. (1987). Paradoxical effects of thoughts suppression. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 5–13). As you know, I could also refer to Lakoff mental frames and its: Don't think of an elephant for different evolutive and modern cognitive perspective, but I've done it before.
If you combine deception -about the concept of privatization- and the difficulty of suppressing your thoughts, you'll get the current health policy mess. Distraction is a strategic move that has alleged political profits. For sure, the whole population only receive the losses from such strategy. We have been installed in this paradigm for many years: the privatization devil is here and there, although there is no shareholder getting any dividend. Fortunately, the world stands beyond spaguetti western films. Ownership has impact on efficiency but depends on the context, sometimes public incentives prevail over private ones, and sometimes is the opposite.
If all these sounds weird to you, have a look at our last Parliament resolution and you'll find the astonishing agreement of all parties against the current ruling party on one issue that doesn't exists: a public consortium privatised!!!. If it is public, as it is, can't be private if the owner is the government, as it is. Disappointing, shameful.
I'm really sad that in my country public representatives play with fire in such a way. I just want to say today, that I'm available for those deputies interested in a free private lecture on organizational economics, on what ownership is and what it means for efficiency. Just give me a call or send me an email.

A relaxing cup of café con leche

11 de març 2015

Genetic testing: a knotty problem

Food and Drug Administration. Optimizing FDA's regulatory oversight of next generation sequencing diagnostic tests — preliminary discussion paper

Cutting the Gordian Helix — Regulating Genomic Testing in the Era of Precision Medicine

"Scientific progress alone won't guarantee that the public reaps the full benefits of precision medicine, an achievement that will also require advancing the nation's regulatory frameworks"
This strong statement reflects a wider concern on the implementation of precision medicine or stratified medicine. I have commented before on this issue, the NEJM article of this week clarifies the last attempt by FDA to shed some light and a specific approach to disentangle the current challenges. FDA has submitted a document for comments just to start a new era of regulation in health, a "collaborative framework" for creating reliable databases of genes and genetic variants underlying disease, and provide a "safe harbor" for the interpretation of genomic tests.
This is exactly the right direction. As long as, information is a public good, genetic testing -clinical validity and utility- should be provided only by the regulator.  Professionals and citizens need to trust in precision medicine and avoid snake-oil sellers.
Having said that, today I'm more concerned than yesterday on how our government is delaying to start such effort. Today is one more day lost.

Dufy at Thyssen Museum right now

PS. Somebody should think twice about the style of health policy debates in public TV.

09 de març 2015

In favour of consumer protection

Can Consumers Make Affordable Care Affordable? The Value of Choice Architecture

Healthcare.gov 3.0 — Behavioral Economics and Insurance Exchanges

Recently Google has entered in the insurance comparisons market. Right now is available for car insurance and health insurance could be the next step. This business model changes the search costs and has strong impact over current sales channels. Understanding the salient features of health coverage for any citizen, should require that government regulates the right conditions for consumer protection. If insurancee companies pay the comparison site, as google says, is there any change on how information is shown according to the amount paid?. Have a look at the Peter Ubel et al. article at NEJM or at the PLOS one, and you'll be convinced that the potential for manipulation is huge.
Therefore, if this is so, there is a role for protecting consumers against well designed biases in comparison sites.

05 de març 2015

Practice makes perfect

Comparing hospital performance within and across countries: an illustrative study of coronary artery bypass graft surgery in England and Spain

My concern over variations in clinical practice relies on a specific issue. Once you've describe it, you need to understand its implications. Thus, somebody should assess whether variations cause poor health outcomes. Before starting such a task, somebody has to measure relative performance, and this is precisely what a recent article in EJPH does on CABG surgery in England and Spain. I would like to highlight this statement:
In this article, we use patient-level data within and between two countries to assess the added value of pooling administrative data across countries and to explore hypotheses that may explain differences such as those reported in cardiac care. These may be driven by a small number of hospitals with unacceptably high mortality rates (perhaps due to coding differences or under-performance). Otherwise, country differences in outcomes may be explained by the concentration of services into specialist centres with differences in clinical facilities and staff experience, as reflected by hospital volume of surgery. These hypotheses cannot be tested adequately using within-country data or national aggregates, but lessons may potentially be learned from hospital-level comparisons across countries using comprehensive administrative data.
If we focus on performance, national aggregates confound. And this is focus of the article:
Unadjusted mortality rate following CABG surgery demonstrates a considerable difference between hospitals (particularly in Spain) and between countries (average mortality is 2.3% in England, 5.0% in Spain)
After adjusnting and pooling data from both countries, then results look different:
First, the hospitals’ performance contrasts substantially with the traditional within-country findings. Nine Spanish hospitals are identified as ‘alarms’ in the pooled assessment compared with five in the country-specific assessment. Thirteen Spanish hospitals are additionally identified as ‘alerts’ that were within the normal range when considering Spain alone. Four English hospitals are now identified as alerts and none is assigned alarm status. Second, there is a clear separation in the number of expected deaths between English and Spanish hospitals, reflecting differences in volume across countries. The median hospital surgical volume in Spain is 154 patients a year, compared with 690 in England, and the highest volume hospital in Spain treated 337 patients in 1 year, whereas the lowest volume hospital in England treated 327. Third, despite the large overall between-country difference, the vast majority of hospitals in England and around a third of those in Spain lie within or below the 95% funnel and are largely comparable in terms of their SMR.
This is an excellent explanation of "practice makes perfect" argument. And, if this were the only factor, there is a compelling reason to concentrate CABG surgery in certain hospitals and close services in others. We know that some concrete hospitals may have high adjusted mortality rates and deserve a concrete action. Urgent decision is needed, just to reduce mortality ratio by half.

PS. The whole issue on variations in EJPH represents a milestone in health services research. Congratulations to the authors and the ECHO project.

PS. GCS blog on the same topic.

PS. New book available: The Triple Aim for the future of health care by Núria Mas and Wendy Wisbaum

03 de març 2015

An illusionary free lunch

Some months ago I started a series of posts under the title "Fasten seat belts". The topic is well known, how new skyrocketing drug prices are distorting budgets and access. Yesterday we got the final resolution. Fasten you seat belt, this is the moment of truth: The government has decided that hepatitis C patients under specific conditions will get treatment. And once he has decided coverage, he concludes that he will not pay the bill. Somebody else will have to do it, autonomous communities governments. Free lunchs exists in Sepharad!
This is a complete mess and it is only the begining, new drugs are knocking at the door. For catalans, this foreign decision represents 470 m €, an additional deficit for the 2015 budget of 5.7%!!! (if all expenditure were charged in one year). Does this make any sense?. Of course Basque country is not included in such arrangements...
There is an objective need to disconnect, the time is getting closer. Things couldn't have been done worse.

02 de març 2015

Beyond the genome

FORUM Epigenomics. Roadmap for regulation. Diseases mapped

My suggestion for today. Have a look at the papers in Nature on epigenome, and at the following figure:

The Roadmap Epigenomics Project has produced reference epigenomes that provide information on key functional elements controlling gene expression in 127 human tissues and cell types, and encompassing embryonic and adult tissues, from healthy individuals and those with disease. a, Many of the adult tissues investigated were broken down by cell type or region — blood into several types of immune cell, for instance, and the brain into regions including the hippocampus and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Tissue samples and cells were subjected to a range of epigenomic analyses, along with genome sequencing and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). b, Embryonic stem (ES) cells, which are taken from the embryo at the 'blastocyst' stage and can give rise to almost every cell type in the body, were used to analyse, for example, the differentiation of stem cells into different neuronal lineages. The ES-cell-derived cell lines underwent the same epigenomic analyses as the tissue samples.

The key article, here.Tissues and cell types profiled:


For decades, biomedical science has focused on ways of identifying the genes that contribute to a particular trait, or phenotype. Approaches such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identify locations in thhuman genome at which variations in DNA sequence are linked to specific phenotypes, but if the variant is located in a region of DNA that does not encode a protein, such studies rarely provide insights into the regulatory mechanisms underlying the association. In these cases, comprehensive epigenomic analyses can provide the missing link between genomic variation and cellular phenotype.

If this is so, why are governments reluctant to introduce a ban on genetic tests with spurious associations between genome and diseases?




PS. Manel Esteller in DM.

27 de febrer 2015

A closely guarded secret

Stealth Research. Is Biomedical Innovation Happening Outside the Peer-Reviewed Literature?

How can we identify a snake-oil seller?. Not so easy. Have a look  at JAMA, John Ioannidis article shows his concerns about Theranos, a company that is providing lab services with a new propietary technology that has no peer-review article in any scientific publication. Nobody can check tests sensibility and specifity, no external quality controls, and so on.
If this is the path for the future of health care provision, then I am really concerned because it will be a complete disaster. No consumer protection, no regulation, uncertain science and more uncertain outcomes. After all this years, is this what citizens deserve?.
Such style of "laissez-faire, laissez-passer" medicine could represent huge profits for some and a big loss for everyone.
Otherwise some alternative should be proposed to boost publication and transparency. The author's suggestion is the following one:
To solve this conundrum, it may be necessary to find ways to realign the reward system for innovation. One possibility is to make the scientific literature more receptive to innovators. This could include models in which reports of disruptive discoveries that are in dissonance with the mainstream can still be communicated as preprints without prior peer review, perhaps in the same way as the successful example of arXiv in the physical sciences, which has now reached 1 million e-print articles. That there has been no peer review of these initial reports should be transparent to researchers and the public.
Thus, some better regulatory process is needed so that innovative ideas for financially successful applications can be scrutinized by the wider scientific community as to their validity. A company should not be forced to disclose its science secrets in detail, especially while its efforts are still exploratory rial-and error and while creating basic elements for its products and services. However, if a product or service reaches the point at which it generates substantial revenue, the science behind it should then be communicated in detail to ensure adequate review.

26 de febrer 2015

Opening the door to recreational genetics testing

On February 19th, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized 23andMe to market a direct-to-consumer (DTC) carrier test for Bloom syndrome. Such test was classified as a medical device, and exempting it from premarket review. This may pave the way for DTC genetic testing in the US market.
The decision to open door for one test may represent the biggest move towards a recreational genetic testing market. You know that from this blog I have backed a ban on developing such markets and the need for an effective regulatory review different from the flawed medical device system.
The european regulator is still on holiday, I said that some months ago and it is still "out".

PS. Variations in health care in GCS Blog.

25 de febrer 2015

Lakoff brilliant analysis

Handbook of Neurosociology

Today I would like to quote a clever analysis of US health reform. Just as an alert for any other country that wants to start a similar process.
Solving a Social Science Puzzle
In 2009, when President Barack Obama chose the policy provisions for his health care plan, polls showed that most provisions (e.g., no preconditions, choice of plans) were supported by 60–80% of Americans. Yet, when the whole plan was polled, fewer than 50% supported it. Why? Why the disparity between the parts and the whole, when the whole literally equals the sum of the parts?
The answer is straightforward from the perspective of real reason. When President Obama came out with the provisions of his health care plan in early 2009, the conservatives decided to attack it not on policy grounds but on moral grounds. They chose two areas of morality: Freedom (“government takeover”) and Life (“death panels”). And they repeated over and over that “Obamacare" (naming matters) was a government takeover that was a threat to individual freedom, with death panels that were a threat to life itself.
Note that the policy provisions were about the everyday details of dealing with one’s HMO. They were in the Practical Health Care Details frame. The conservative attack was in the Morality frame, activating freedom and life. The conservatives understood that all politics is moral, that political lead- ers all say they are doing what is right, not what is wrong.
The policy details and the moral attack were in different frames, located in different parts of the brain. From the perspective of real reason, the whole health care act was, for those with a conservative worldview, not equal to the sum of its policy parts. Conservatives and independents (actually biconceptuals, who are progressive in some respects and conservative in others) had their conservative moral worldview activated by the conservative moral attack. This separated the moral whole from the practical parts.
For progressives, their morality and the practical details fit together; for conservatives and biconceptuals (aka “independents”), they were different subject matters.
Such an explanation is natural when you think in terms of the brain and frame-circuitry. It is not possible when you think in terms of the logic of Enlightenment reason, where the whole is necessarily (logically) the sum of the policy parts
PS. You may find former posts about George Lakoff's work on cognitive science, here and there.
PS. This is the coda of the first chapter of the book. The whole chapter is a must read for those interested in "brain circuitry", language, metaphors and politics.

24 de febrer 2015

Thresholds' controversies

Guidance on priority setting in health care (GPS-Health): the inclusion of equity criteria not captured by cost-effectiveness analysis

The threshold for cost-effectiveness is under controversy again. This is not new. FT explains a new York University paper that has created great concern. Is it NICE cost-effectiveness way of implementation really "cost-effective"?. From their point of view, thresholds are higher than they should be to guarantee access.
Thresholds are only one side of the coin. The other one is the introduction of equity criteria in cost-effectiveness analysis. Three years ago, I explained this topic in a post commenting on Tony Culyer''s article. He says that there are two "dragons" in dealing with cost-effective analysis: equity and our ignorance about how to introduce it. I then quoted this statement:
‘Arguably the biggest threat to our public health care system is not our ability to pay for the increasing cost of care, but rather a loss of public confidence.’’
An older post on Eddy's work explains similar concerns over thresholds and equity. We have to convene that there is not only one method to do it. However, some well known academics have published an interesting proposal: criteria for access to be considered jointly with cost-effectiveness.
The GPS-Health incorporates criteria related to the disease an intervention targets (severity of disease, capacity to benefit, and past health loss); characteristics of social groups an intervention targets (socioeconomic status, area of living, gender; race, ethnicity, religion and sexual orientation); and non-health consequences of an intervention (financial protection, economic productivity, and care for others).
Basically, these criteria are well known. The difficulty of its measurement has yet to be overcome.

PS. My former post on the same topic and authors in York. 

20 de febrer 2015

Medicine as a data science

THE PATIENT WILL SEE YOU NOW
The Future of Medicine Is in Your Hands

Maybe the title is the most confounding factor of the new great book written by Eric Topol.  Once you have finished reading it, you'll be convinced that he set the expectations to high, ordinary people should develop certain skills beyond their capabilities to apply such concept. I would say that a greater part of the medicine is in your hands, not medicine at all. The rationale behind the book is that medicine digitization allows patients to know more about their disease and how to "manage" it in certain cases. The most important thesis is that future medicine has to be considered a data science. And this is exactly the impact of the digitization of diagnostic and treatment: pervasive application of Bayes theorem in clinical practice, using big data and analytics.(Remember my archimedes posts, surprisingly Topol forgot it).
The book includes many topics that those that follow this blog it would sound familiar, i.e. ch. 4 about Angelina Jolie and BRCA genetic tests, a must read. And chapter 5 is a journey on the new omics of the medicine, a topic that I have also covered in the blog.
Nowadays, Eric Topol is the writer that is able to capture what's going on in medicine and its impact on society. That's why this book is a key reference of our time and I strongly recommend it.

PS. If you don't believe me, check Forbes, NYT, WP, WSJ.
PS. The book is also an invitation to change the current academic programmes for life sciences universities. Better now than later.






17 de febrer 2015

Less volume, more value

From 2009 to 2013, the number of primary care visits has fallen by 12.5%, from 51.1 million to 44.7 million, 6.4 million visits less. This is a lot!.
Sometime ago I posted on the same topic. The number of professionals has shrunk slightly, 2.5%. The result is that there is more time for the same patients because the population is closely the same. Therefore, we have to confirm that the impact of electronic prescription and other organizational strategies have a larger effect than anybody could guess, compared to the copayment mantra. However, a deeper analysis of the causal factors and its relationship with health outcomes is needed. We know that there is less volume and we have some clues about more value, though not enough for a sound conclusion.

14 de febrer 2015

Health policy extremism and radicalisation

Going to Extremes: How Like Minds Unite and Divide

After reading this accurate article by Guillem López-Casasnovas, I thought that it was worth to quote Sunstein book. His key messages are:

• When groups polarize and separate from mainstream society – either psychologically or physically – they can become extremist.
• People change their attitudes when they want a group to accept them.
• People will abdicate moral decisions to a recognized authority.
• Collective behavior, or “groupthink,” provides a means of identifying decision-making processes that lead to extremism and mistakes.
• Information moves and amplifies among groups via “social cascades.”
• Investment clubs making decisions by unanimous votes produce the worst investment returns.
• Group deliberation produces sounder decisions than individuals acting alone.
• Techniques to blunt extremism include traditionalism, consequentialism, and checks and balances.
• Informational cascades can affect markets and mass behavior.
• In a democracy, information, criticism and skepticism combine to improve an institution’s performance.
Take care, we are right now on a social and informational cascade. Have you noticed?



12 de febrer 2015

A bit worse before it gets better

Toward Precision Medicine: Building a Knowledge Network for Biomedical Research and a New Taxonomy of Disease

A new mental frame was created some weeks ago when President Obama gave a speach on the creation of the initiative on Precision Medicine. To be honest, the term was in the title of a 2011 report by IOM.
In my opinion, it is a bundle: stratified medicine+big data+regulatory science+... This is the bundle of the new buzzword, and unless new details arise, nothing specially new.
Now the New Yorker speaks abouts the problems of precision medicine, and focuses on the risks. The final paragraph illustrates the issue:
For Solomon, genetics is simply a new tool with a learning curve, the same as any other. “When the electrocardiogram was first developed, about a hundred years ago, most physicians thought it was voodoo,” Solomon said. “Now, if you don’t understand it, then you shouldn’t be practicing medicine.” But Mary Norton sees that analogy as too simplistic. The pace of genetics research, the variability of test methods and results, and the aura of infallibility with which the tests are marketed, she told me, make this advance a more complicated one than the EKG. Norton believes that, as genetics becomes increasingly integrated into medical care, “over time everyone will come to have a better understanding of genetics.” But, as the demand for DNA testing increases, she says, “it will probably be a bit worse before it gets better.”
Could we avoid the initial bit worse of  "imprecision of stratified medicine"? . I'm full convinced that appropriate regulatory efforts could mitigate such impact. Unfortunately, governments are on vacation.

09 de febrer 2015

Dancing to public accountants' tune

I would have never imagined that the health policy could have been distorted and dictated to by public accountants. Yes, you have heard correctly. European Union and its statistical arm, Eurostat, has decided what is a public firm. And the decision is so anomalous that it deserves a short comment.
We all know and agree that public accountants need to define with accuracy the size of government deficit. They consider what is public administration according to several criteria (p.25), this is their responsibility. However, the collateral damage of doing it in a weird manner, puts a severe strain on the health system as we know it today.
Management autonomy has been introduced in the last decades within the publicly financed system under a myriad of different organizations. Today, the application of ESA 2010 -the accounting rules in place since last September 1st- represents that all of them have to follow the same path and autonomy will be jeopardized. We will be dancing to public acountants' tune.
Management autonomy helps to boost efficiency, even in public systems where incentives are low-powered. Hence, when somebody complains in the near future about inefficiency, we'll have to remember that european public accountants and its politicians have contributed to worsen health systems. Thank you so much, accountants.

PS. Please save this post for the future. It will have strong implications.

PS. This is the end.