The impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy

 Monitoring life expectancy levels during the COVID-19 pandemic: Example of the unequal impact of the first wave on Spanish regions 

Our estimates of a 0.9 year decline in annual life expectancy in Spain suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to cause life expectancy stalls not seen for decades. 

 In the first half of 2020, Spain has been one of the most affected countries both in terms of directly related COVID-19 deaths [1], as well as in terms of total excess mortality [4]. We estimated the annual life expectancy drop between 2019 and the one year window that closes out on 5 July, 2020 to be 0.9 years (~11 months) in Spain. In contrast, the average annual increase in life expectancy in Spain increased on average two months per year from 2009 to 2019. Altogether, this suggests that life expectancy drop between observed and expected annual life expectancy in the recent one year window would be around or below one year.

Annual life expectancy at birth in 2019, 2020*a and differences between periods for Spain

Measuring covid-19 related deaths

 Excess mortality. Measuring the direct and indirect impact of COVID-19

Estimations of excess mortality can give an overall understanding of the impact of  COVID-19, by not only comparing deaths that are directly attributable to the virus, but also by 
taking into account indirect mortality. There may be, for example, deaths due to health systems not being able to cope with other conditions or to the longer-term impact of the pandemic on population health. There has been preliminary evidence of disruptions to continuity of care, hindering people suffering from heart attacks, strokes and other conditions from seeking necessary treatment in emergency rooms, or of delays in accessing regular preventive or ongoing care in primary care practitioner (GP), surgeries or outpatient departments for chronic conditions.

And a clear message on this OECD report:

 Comparing the number of reported deaths from all causes against the average over the previous five years, Spain recorded a 61% increase in overall mortality over this 10-week period. At the beginning of April (Week 14), Spain also recorded the highest excess mortality for a single week, with a 154% increase in mortality, equating to more than 12 500 additional deaths compared to the 5-year average for the same week.

Covid deaths

Excess mortality, the key indicator

PS. Coronavirus FT readings.