The tragedy of commonsense morality

Moral Tribes: Emotion, Reason, and the Gap Between Us and Them

The suggestion by Joshua Green in his book "Moral Tribes" is to put our gut reactions aside, and rely on our utilitarian moral compass for direction. There are two fundamental moral problems. Me versus Us is the basic problem of cooperation. Our brains solve this problem primarily with emotion and thanks to these automatic settings, we succeed in this controversy. However complex moral problems are about the latter, Us versus Them,-between tribes, not within tribes-.

The morality concept:

 Morality is a set of psychological adaptations that allow otherwise selfish individuals to reap the benefits of cooperation

The fact:

Two moral tragedies threaten human well-being. The original tragedy is the Tragedy of the Commons. This is a tragedy of selfishness, a failure of individuals to put Us ahead of Me. Morality is nature’s solution to this problem. The new tragedy, the modern tragedy, is the Tragedy of Commonsense Morality, the problem of life on the new pastures. Here morality is undoubtedly part of the solution, but it’s also part of the problem. In the modern tragedy, the very same moral thinking that enables cooperation within groups undermines cooperation between groups. Within each tribe, the herders of the new pastures are bound together by their moral ideals. But the tribes themselves are divided by their moral ideals. This is unfortunate, but it should come as no surprise, given the conclusion of the last section: Morality did not evolve to promote universal cooperation. On the contrary, it evolved as a device for successful intergroup competition. In other words, morality evolved to avert the Tragedy of the Commons, but it did not evolve to avert the Tragedy of Commonsense Morality.

This is a very interesting and intricate book that requires rereading. There are strong implications for health economics. His recommendations, to be discussed (some day), are the following ones:

The six rules for modern herders:

• 1. In the face of moral controversy, consult but do not trust, your instincts.
• 2. Rights are not for making arguments; they are for ending arguments
• 3. Focus on the facts and make others do the same
• 4. Beware of biased fairness
• 5. Use common currency
• 6. Give

PS. You may apply his arguments to the current political nightmare, and it fits perfectly.

The identified person bias

Identified versus Statistical Lives: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

The concept:

The identified person bias: A greater inclination to assist (and avoid harming) persons and groups identified as those at high risk of great harm than to assist (and avoid harming) persons and groups who will suffer (or already suffer) similar harm but are not identified (as yet).

 The issues:

1. When precisely does the identified person bias arise? And what exactly does it consist in? For example, is it simply a matter of a very human response to the vivid human faces of people with personal stories, in the hospital ward or on TV screens? Is it something that arises only when the risks are known, only under strict  uncertainty, or regardless of how much we can specify the risk? Does that bias arise only when few victims are involved?
2. What, if anything, might justify giving priority to identified persons at risk?
3. What would be the practical implications for law, public health, medicine, and the environment of accepting the priority given to identified persons, or of forsaking it—if we could successfully do so?

The book, a must read:

 

PS. Former post on the same topic.

PS.  Harvard events of interest.

Don't think of privatization

Let's do a little thought experiment today.

Close your eyes. Imagine a privatized healthcare consortium as vividly as you can. It is clear! Is it? There are private owners. Or seems to be some officials geting dividends?

Now, I want you to NOT think about privatization. Think of anything else but privatisation. Try it for a few minutes.

What are you thinking of? How many times did the privatization issue cross your mind? Quite a few times, right?

Now, close your eyes again and try to think about what you did for today? Who you met? Where you went? Anything interesting happened when you were traveling? What did you eat for breakfast/lunch? Try it for a few minutes.

How many times did you think of privatization? None? Maybe once or twice especially since I asked this question?

This is an exercise that shows that suppressing your thoughts in your mind doesn't really work. When we try not to think about something and try to suppress it, our minds keep going back to the same thoughts. This is a well known experiment from Wegner et al. (Wegner, D. M., Schneider, D. J., Carter, S. R., & White, T. L. (1987). Paradoxical effects of thoughts suppression. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 5–13). As you know, I could also refer to Lakoff mental frames and its: Don't think of an elephant for different evolutive and modern cognitive perspective, but I've done it before.
If you combine deception -about the concept of privatization- and the difficulty of suppressing your thoughts, you'll get the current health policy mess. Distraction is a strategic move that has alleged political profits. For sure, the whole population only receive the losses from such strategy. We have been installed in this paradigm for many years: the privatization devil is here and there, although there is no shareholder getting any dividend. Fortunately, the world stands beyond spaguetti western films. Ownership has impact on efficiency but depends on the context, sometimes public incentives prevail over private ones, and sometimes is the opposite.
If all these sounds weird to you, have a look at our last Parliament resolution and you'll find the astonishing agreement of all parties against the current ruling party on one issue that doesn't exists: a public consortium privatised!!!. If it is public, as it is, can't be private if the owner is the government, as it is. Disappointing, shameful.
I'm really sad that in my country public representatives play with fire in such a way. I just want to say today, that I'm available for those deputies interested in a free private lecture on organizational economics, on what ownership is and what it means for efficiency. Just give me a call or send me an email.

A relaxing cup of café con leche

Genetic testing: a knotty problem

Food and Drug Administration. Optimizing FDA's regulatory oversight of next generation sequencing diagnostic tests — preliminary discussion paper

Cutting the Gordian Helix — Regulating Genomic Testing in the Era of Precision Medicine

"Scientific progress alone won't guarantee that the public reaps the full benefits of precision medicine, an achievement that will also require advancing the nation's regulatory frameworks"

This strong statement reflects a wider concern on the implementation of precision medicine or stratified medicine. I have commented before on this issue, the NEJM article of this week clarifies the last attempt by FDA to shed some light and a specific approach to disentangle the current challenges. FDA has submitted a document for comments just to start a new era of regulation in health, a "collaborative framework" for creating reliable databases of genes and genetic variants underlying disease, and provide a "safe harbor" for the interpretation of genomic tests.
This is exactly the right direction. As long as, information is a public good, genetic testing -clinical validity and utility- should be provided only by the regulator.  Professionals and citizens need to trust in precision medicine and avoid snake-oil sellers.
Having said that, today I'm more concerned than yesterday on how our government is delaying to start such effort. Today is one more day lost.

Dufy at Thyssen Museum right now

PS. Somebody should think twice about the style of health policy debates in public TV.

In favour of consumer protection

Can Consumers Make Affordable Care Affordable? The Value of Choice Architecture

Healthcare.gov 3.0 — Behavioral Economics and Insurance Exchanges

Recently Google has entered in the insurance comparisons market. Right now is available for car insurance and health insurance could be the next step. This business model changes the search costs and has strong impact over current sales channels. Understanding the salient features of health coverage for any citizen, should require that government regulates the right conditions for consumer protection. If insurancee companies pay the comparison site, as google says, is there any change on how information is shown according to the amount paid?. Have a look at the Peter Ubel et al. article at NEJM or at the PLOS one, and you'll be convinced that the potential for manipulation is huge.
Therefore, if this is so, there is a role for protecting consumers against well designed biases in comparison sites.

Practice makes perfect

Comparing hospital performance within and across countries: an illustrative study of coronary artery bypass graft surgery in England and Spain

My concern over variations in clinical practice relies on a specific issue. Once you've describe it, you need to understand its implications. Thus, somebody should assess whether variations cause poor health outcomes. Before starting such a task, somebody has to measure relative performance, and this is precisely what a recent article in EJPH does on CABG surgery in England and Spain. I would like to highlight this statement:

In this article, we use patient-level data within and between two countries to assess the added value of pooling administrative data across countries and to explore hypotheses that may explain differences such as those reported in cardiac care. These may be driven by a small number of hospitals with unacceptably high mortality rates (perhaps due to coding differences or under-performance). Otherwise, country differences in outcomes may be explained by the concentration of services into specialist centres with differences in clinical facilities and staff experience, as reflected by hospital volume of surgery. These hypotheses cannot be tested adequately using within-country data or national aggregates, but lessons may potentially be learned from hospital-level comparisons across countries using comprehensive administrative data.

If we focus on performance, national aggregates confound. And this is focus of the article:

Unadjusted mortality rate following CABG surgery demonstrates a considerable difference between hospitals (particularly in Spain) and between countries (average mortality is 2.3% in England, 5.0% in Spain)

After adjusnting and pooling data from both countries, then results look different:

First, the hospitals’ performance contrasts substantially with the traditional within-country findings. Nine Spanish hospitals are identified as ‘alarms’ in the pooled assessment compared with five in the country-specific assessment. Thirteen Spanish hospitals are additionally identified as ‘alerts’ that were within the normal range when considering Spain alone. Four English hospitals are now identified as alerts and none is assigned alarm status. Second, there is a clear separation in the number of expected deaths between English and Spanish hospitals, reflecting differences in volume across countries. The median hospital surgical volume in Spain is 154 patients a year, compared with 690 in England, and the highest volume hospital in Spain treated 337 patients in 1 year, whereas the lowest volume hospital in England treated 327. Third, despite the large overall between-country difference, the vast majority of hospitals in England and around a third of those in Spain lie within or below the 95% funnel and are largely comparable in terms of their SMR.

This is an excellent explanation of "practice makes perfect" argument. And, if this were the only factor, there is a compelling reason to concentrate CABG surgery in certain hospitals and close services in others. We know that some concrete hospitals may have high adjusted mortality rates and deserve a concrete action. Urgent decision is needed, just to reduce mortality ratio by half.

PS. The whole issue on variations in EJPH represents a milestone in health services research. Congratulations to the authors and the ECHO project.

PS. GCS blog on the same topic.

PS. New book available: The Triple Aim for the future of health care by Núria Mas and Wendy Wisbaum

An illusionary free lunch

Some months ago I started a series of posts under the title "Fasten seat belts". The topic is well known, how new skyrocketing drug prices are distorting budgets and access. Yesterday we got the final resolution. Fasten you seat belt, this is the moment of truth: The government has decided that hepatitis C patients under specific conditions will get treatment. And once he has decided coverage, he concludes that he will not pay the bill. Somebody else will have to do it, autonomous communities governments. Free lunchs exists in Sepharad!
This is a complete mess and it is only the begining, new drugs are knocking at the door. For catalans, this foreign decision represents 470 m €, an additional deficit for the 2015 budget of 5.7%!!! (if all expenditure were charged in one year). Does this make any sense?. Of course Basque country is not included in such arrangements...
There is an objective need to disconnect, the time is getting closer. Things couldn't have been done worse.

Beyond the genome

FORUM Epigenomics. Roadmap for regulation. Diseases mapped

My suggestion for today. Have a look at the papers in Nature on epigenome, and at the following figure:

The Roadmap Epigenomics Project has produced reference epigenomes that provide information on key functional elements controlling gene expression in 127 human tissues and cell types, and encompassing embryonic and adult tissues, from healthy individuals and those with disease. a, Many of the adult tissues investigated were broken down by cell type or region — blood into several types of immune cell, for instance, and the brain into regions including the hippocampus and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Tissue samples and cells were subjected to a range of epigenomic analyses, along with genome sequencing and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). b, Embryonic stem (ES) cells, which are taken from the embryo at the 'blastocyst' stage and can give rise to almost every cell type in the body, were used to analyse, for example, the differentiation of stem cells into different neuronal lineages. The ES-cell-derived cell lines underwent the same epigenomic analyses as the tissue samples.

The key article, here.Tissues and cell types profiled:

For decades, biomedical science has focused on ways of identifying the genes that contribute to a particular trait, or phenotype. Approaches such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identify locations in thhuman genome at which variations in DNA sequence are linked to specific phenotypes, but if the variant is located in a region of DNA that does not encode a protein, such studies rarely provide insights into the regulatory mechanisms underlying the association. In these cases, comprehensive epigenomic analyses can provide the missing link between genomic variation and cellular phenotype.

If this is so, why are governments reluctant to introduce a ban on genetic tests with spurious associations between genome and diseases?




PS. Manel Esteller in DM.

A closely guarded secret

Stealth Research. Is Biomedical Innovation Happening Outside the Peer-Reviewed Literature?

How can we identify a snake-oil seller?. Not so easy. Have a look  at JAMA, John Ioannidis article shows his concerns about Theranos, a company that is providing lab services with a new propietary technology that has no peer-review article in any scientific publication. Nobody can check tests sensibility and specifity, no external quality controls, and so on.
If this is the path for the future of health care provision, then I am really concerned because it will be a complete disaster. No consumer protection, no regulation, uncertain science and more uncertain outcomes. After all this years, is this what citizens deserve?.
Such style of "laissez-faire, laissez-passer" medicine could represent huge profits for some and a big loss for everyone.
Otherwise some alternative should be proposed to boost publication and transparency. The author's suggestion is the following one:

To solve this conundrum, it may be necessary to find ways to realign the reward system for innovation. One possibility is to make the scientific literature more receptive to innovators. This could include models in which reports of disruptive discoveries that are in dissonance with the mainstream can still be communicated as preprints without prior peer review, perhaps in the same way as the successful example of arXiv in the physical sciences, which has now reached 1 million e-print articles. That there has been no peer review of these initial reports should be transparent to researchers and the public.

Thus, some better regulatory process is needed so that innovative ideas for financially successful applications can be scrutinized by the wider scientific community as to their validity. A company should not be forced to disclose its science secrets in detail, especially while its efforts are still exploratory rial-and error and while creating basic elements for its products and services. However, if a product or service reaches the point at which it generates substantial revenue, the science behind it should then be communicated in detail to ensure adequate review.

Opening the door to recreational genetics testing

On February 19th, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized 23andMe to market a direct-to-consumer (DTC) carrier test for Bloom syndrome. Such test was classified as a medical device, and exempting it from premarket review. This may pave the way for DTC genetic testing in the US market.
The decision to open door for one test may represent the biggest move towards a recreational genetic testing market. You know that from this blog I have backed a ban on developing such markets and the need for an effective regulatory review different from the flawed medical device system.
The european regulator is still on holiday, I said that some months ago and it is still "out".

PS. Variations in health care in GCS Blog.

Lakoff brilliant analysis

Handbook of Neurosociology

Today I would like to quote a clever analysis of US health reform. Just as an alert for any other country that wants to start a similar process.

Solving a Social Science Puzzle

In 2009, when President Barack Obama chose the policy provisions for his health care plan, polls showed that most provisions (e.g., no preconditions, choice of plans) were supported by 60–80% of Americans. Yet, when the whole plan was polled, fewer than 50% supported it. Why? Why the disparity between the parts and the whole, when the whole literally equals the sum of the parts?
The answer is straightforward from the perspective of real reason. When President Obama came out with the provisions of his health care plan in early 2009, the conservatives decided to attack it not on policy grounds but on moral grounds. They chose two areas of morality: Freedom (“government takeover”) and Life (“death panels”). And they repeated over and over that “Obamacare" (naming matters) was a government takeover that was a threat to individual freedom, with death panels that were a threat to life itself.
Note that the policy provisions were about the everyday details of dealing with one’s HMO. They were in the Practical Health Care Details frame. The conservative attack was in the Morality frame, activating freedom and life. The conservatives understood that all politics is moral, that political lead- ers all say they are doing what is right, not what is wrong.
The policy details and the moral attack were in different frames, located in different parts of the brain. From the perspective of real reason, the whole health care act was, for those with a conservative worldview, not equal to the sum of its policy parts. Conservatives and independents (actually biconceptuals, who are progressive in some respects and conservative in others) had their conservative moral worldview activated by the conservative moral attack. This separated the moral whole from the practical parts.
For progressives, their morality and the practical details fit together; for conservatives and biconceptuals (aka “independents”), they were different subject matters.
Such an explanation is natural when you think in terms of the brain and frame-circuitry. It is not possible when you think in terms of the logic of Enlightenment reason, where the whole is necessarily (logically) the sum of the policy parts

PS. You may find former posts about George Lakoff's work on cognitive science, here and there.
PS. This is the coda of the first chapter of the book. The whole chapter is a must read for those interested in "brain circuitry", language, metaphors and politics.

Thresholds' controversies

Guidance on priority setting in health care (GPS-Health): the inclusion of equity criteria not captured by cost-effectiveness analysis

The threshold for cost-effectiveness is under controversy again. This is not new. FT explains a new York University paper that has created great concern. Is it NICE cost-effectiveness way of implementation really "cost-effective"?. From their point of view, thresholds are higher than they should be to guarantee access.
Thresholds are only one side of the coin. The other one is the introduction of equity criteria in cost-effectiveness analysis. Three years ago, I explained this topic in a post commenting on Tony Culyer''s article. He says that there are two "dragons" in dealing with cost-effective analysis: equity and our ignorance about how to introduce it. I then quoted this statement:

‘Arguably the biggest threat to our public health care system is not our ability to pay for the increasing cost of care, but rather a loss of public confidence.’’

An older post on Eddy's work explains similar concerns over thresholds and equity. We have to convene that there is not only one method to do it. However, some well known academics have published an interesting proposal: criteria for access to be considered jointly with cost-effectiveness.

The GPS-Health incorporates criteria related to the disease an intervention targets (severity of disease, capacity to benefit, and past health loss); characteristics of social groups an intervention targets (socioeconomic status, area of living, gender; race, ethnicity, religion and sexual orientation); and non-health consequences of an intervention (financial protection, economic productivity, and care for others).

Basically, these criteria are well known. The difficulty of its measurement has yet to be overcome.

PS. My former post on the same topic and authors in York. 

Medicine as a data science

THE PATIENT WILL SEE YOU NOW
The Future of Medicine Is in Your Hands

Maybe the title is the most confounding factor of the new great book written by Eric Topol.  Once you have finished reading it, you'll be convinced that he set the expectations to high, ordinary people should develop certain skills beyond their capabilities to apply such concept. I would say that a greater part of the medicine is in your hands, not medicine at all. The rationale behind the book is that medicine digitization allows patients to know more about their disease and how to "manage" it in certain cases. The most important thesis is that future medicine has to be considered a data science. And this is exactly the impact of the digitization of diagnostic and treatment: pervasive application of Bayes theorem in clinical practice, using big data and analytics.(Remember my archimedes posts, surprisingly Topol forgot it).
The book includes many topics that those that follow this blog it would sound familiar, i.e. ch. 4 about Angelina Jolie and BRCA genetic tests, a must read. And chapter 5 is a journey on the new omics of the medicine, a topic that I have also covered in the blog.
Nowadays, Eric Topol is the writer that is able to capture what's going on in medicine and its impact on society. That's why this book is a key reference of our time and I strongly recommend it.

PS. If you don't believe me, check Forbes, NYT, WP, WSJ.
PS. The book is also an invitation to change the current academic programmes for life sciences universities. Better now than later.

Less volume, more value

From 2009 to 2013, the number of primary care visits has fallen by 12.5%, from 51.1 million to 44.7 million, 6.4 million visits less. This is a lot!.
Sometime ago I posted on the same topic. The number of professionals has shrunk slightly, 2.5%. The result is that there is more time for the same patients because the population is closely the same. Therefore, we have to confirm that the impact of electronic prescription and other organizational strategies have a larger effect than anybody could guess, compared to the copayment mantra. However, a deeper analysis of the causal factors and its relationship with health outcomes is needed. We know that there is less volume and we have some clues about more value, though not enough for a sound conclusion.

Health policy extremism and radicalisation

Going to Extremes: How Like Minds Unite and Divide

After reading this accurate article by Guillem López-Casasnovas, I thought that it was worth to quote Sunstein book. His key messages are:

• When groups polarize and separate from mainstream society – either psychologically or physically – they can become extremist.
• People change their attitudes when they want a group to accept them.
• People will abdicate moral decisions to a recognized authority.
• Collective behavior, or “groupthink,” provides a means of identifying decision-making processes that lead to extremism and mistakes.
• Information moves and amplifies among groups via “social cascades.”
• Investment clubs making decisions by unanimous votes produce the worst investment returns.
• Group deliberation produces sounder decisions than individuals acting alone.
• Techniques to blunt extremism include traditionalism, consequentialism, and checks and balances.
• Informational cascades can affect markets and mass behavior.
• In a democracy, information, criticism and skepticism combine to improve an institution’s performance.

Take care, we are right now on a social and informational cascade. Have you noticed?

A bit worse before it gets better

Toward Precision Medicine: Building a Knowledge Network for Biomedical Research and a New Taxonomy of Disease

A new mental frame was created some weeks ago when President Obama gave a speach on the creation of the initiative on Precision Medicine. To be honest, the term was in the title of a 2011 report by IOM.
In my opinion, it is a bundle: stratified medicine+big data+regulatory science+... This is the bundle of the new buzzword, and unless new details arise, nothing specially new.
Now the New Yorker speaks abouts the problems of precision medicine, and focuses on the risks. The final paragraph illustrates the issue:

For Solomon, genetics is simply a new tool with a learning curve, the same as any other. “When the electrocardiogram was first developed, about a hundred years ago, most physicians thought it was voodoo,” Solomon said. “Now, if you don’t understand it, then you shouldn’t be practicing medicine.” But Mary Norton sees that analogy as too simplistic. The pace of genetics research, the variability of test methods and results, and the aura of infallibility with which the tests are marketed, she told me, make this advance a more complicated one than the EKG. Norton believes that, as genetics becomes increasingly integrated into medical care, “over time everyone will come to have a better understanding of genetics.” But, as the demand for DNA testing increases, she says, “it will probably be a bit worse before it gets better.”

Could we avoid the initial bit worse of  "imprecision of stratified medicine"? . I'm full convinced that appropriate regulatory efforts could mitigate such impact. Unfortunately, governments are on vacation.

Dancing to public accountants' tune

I would have never imagined that the health policy could have been distorted and dictated to by public accountants. Yes, you have heard correctly. European Union and its statistical arm, Eurostat, has decided what is a public firm. And the decision is so anomalous that it deserves a short comment.
We all know and agree that public accountants need to define with accuracy the size of government deficit. They consider what is public administration according to several criteria (p.25), this is their responsibility. However, the collateral damage of doing it in a weird manner, puts a severe strain on the health system as we know it today.
Management autonomy has been introduced in the last decades within the publicly financed system under a myriad of different organizations. Today, the application of ESA 2010 -the accounting rules in place since last September 1st- represents that all of them have to follow the same path and autonomy will be jeopardized. We will be dancing to public acountants' tune.
Management autonomy helps to boost efficiency, even in public systems where incentives are low-powered. Hence, when somebody complains in the near future about inefficiency, we'll have to remember that european public accountants and its politicians have contributed to worsen health systems. Thank you so much, accountants.

PS. Please save this post for the future. It will have strong implications.

PS. This is the end.

The hype over genetic tests

Implementation of a companion diagnostic in the clinical laboratory:The BRAF example in melanoma

Analytical validity is one of the three steps for any assessment of genetic tests, combined with clinical validity and clinical utility. Understanding how this process affects specific tests is not that easy.Fortunately you can find a detailed explanation of one of them:the BRAF genotype analysis in tumor tissue samples for identification of melanoma patients that can benefit treatment with BRAF inhibitors.
Once you begin to read the article you'll understand the complexity of being precise in a test. This is the reason why if specificity and sensibility is uncertain, different methodologies are needed (check Figure 1).
But how to do it?. How to set up external controls of quality?. All these issues are covered in this article, that explains what's going on in practical terms. I'm concerned if due to such complexity, all "genetic test talent" is not concentrated in one site of the organization-hospital, and many departments and services -oncology or cardiology- are developing their own genetic tests. Somebody should block this option before it is too late.

The size of the health budget

In 2015 the per capita expenditure (1,120€) will be the same as in 2006, nine years earlier (p.46). The economy follows exactly the same pattern. GDP per capita in 2014 was less than in 2006. Therefore, those that are concerned about stagnation and cutbacks, should look at statistics. The health budget is set according to political criteria, and what this amount reflects is exactly the same social effort to cover health risks as before the crisis.
Unfortunately I haven't seen this argument in any debate, up to now. It's really annoying that ideology overpowers evidence.

PS. James Buchanan blog in BMJ

PS. Robbed by the Kremlin in the WSJ.

Mandatory complementary private insurance

Compulsory private complementary health insurance offered by employers in France: Implications and current debate

It looks strange at a first glance. Why a country with statutory Social Health Insurance (SHI) has to set up a mandate to employers to buy private health insurance for their employees?. In France by 2016 all employers will have to do it, and this complementary insurance covers basically copayments in the SHI system. It is really strange, because copayments are created to reduce moral hazard, hence if somebody insures copayments, then its impact on utilization is the same as if it were no copayments in the SHI but with a high and avoidable loading fee. And, as far as this insurance is mandatory and private, then it makes no sense at all.
Each country decides politically according to the context, nothing to add, though this is a very weird case. You'll find more details in this article.

Is this the end my friend? (2)

Once upon a time there was a country with seven Schools of Medicine for 7,5m inhabitants. The needs for future physicians were estimated 8 years ago and the time goes by but somebody seems he is not aware of that. Some months ago I said that the organization of health care system as we have known it, was at their final days, now I can confirm that medical profession structure is also in the same situation.
A big and unnoticed change has occurred. In 2006, only 1,8% of resident physicians were foreigners, in 2013 this figure has jumped to 32,3% (!). Does this makes any sense?.
How is it possible that our citizens can't study medicine and we are able to open the system to foreigners without the right level of qualifications?. Who is boosting this?. I explained it in this post some years ago, here and there.
The time to disconnect is coming. Enough is enough!

The Dunning Funnel criteria for the health basket

The basic benefit package: Composition and exceptions to the rules. A case study

In the Netherlands there are four criteria to assess any benefit to be included in the health basket:

1. Care should be essential: Does the illness, disability or the care needed justify a claim on solidarity within the existing cultural context?
2. Effectiveness: Does the intervention do what it is expected to do? In other words: it is proven to be effective and evidence based.
3. Cost-effectiveness: Is the ratio between the cost of the intervention and the outcome
acceptable?
4. Feasibility: Is it feasible to include the intervention in the basic package, now and in the future?

This is known as the funnel originated by a commission report chaired by Mr. Dunning in 1991. The application of such criteria has been evolving and a recent article says that some benefits have followed a yo-yo effect, being in and out of the package for unspecified reasons. I think that it is better to have some clear principles and justify its application, than not having any.
Here we have some principles, sometimes we change them, sometimes we assess them, sometimes not and nobody knows why.

PS. The Irish  have made a recent effort of definition in this report.

The challenge of setting fair priorities

Public views on principles for health care priority setting: Findings of a European cross-country study using Q methodology

The clash between equity and efficiency is featured nowadays with hepatitis C drugs. High prices mean that access requires some kind of prioritisation. An interesting article may help to understand it:

 Resources available to the health care sector are finite and typically insufficient to fulfil all the demands for health care in the population. Decisions must be made about which treatments to provide. Relatively little is known about the views of the general public regarding the principles that should guide such decisions

The tension between equity and efficiency in the health care sector is apparent in a range of routine decisions and practices. For instance, in the prioritisation of patients on a waiting list, the aim to maximise overall health benefits from treatment may be at conflict with that of obtaining an equitable distribution of health and health care.

 Now ask yourself about the following principles to allocate health resources:

(I) “Egalitarianism, entitlement and equality of access”;

II) “Severity and the magnitude of health gains”;

(III) “Fair innings, young people and maximising health benefits”; 

(IV) “The intrinsic value of life and healthy living”; 

(V) “Quality of life is more important than simply staying alive”.

 Are you able to set a ranking? Does a general ranking of priorities always apply to all cases?. Not so easy. This is exactly what they do in the article and the results are:

Given the plurality of views on the principles for health care priority setting, no single equity principle can be used to underpin health care priority setting. Hence, the process of decision making becomes more important, in which, arguably, these multiple perspectives in society should be somehow reflected.

Let's think about the somehow...

PS. Sofosbuvir vs. NICE . And the winner is?

The satisfaction paradox and the need for a dose of realism

A paradox is a "situation that is made up of two opposite things and that seems impossible but is actually true or possible". This is exactly what is happening to satisfaction with health services in times of economic recession. Everybody would think that less budget damages satisfaction perception. What's going on is exactly the opposite. Satisfaction with health services is increasing (from 79% of people satisfied with the public system in 2006 to 88% in 2013). And this is also happening in the UK, John Appleby et al. from King's Fund say:

Overall public satisfaction with the NHS increased to 65 per cent in 2014 – the second highest level since the British Social Attitudes survey began in 1983. Dissatisfaction with the service fell to an all-time low of 15 per cent.

One interpretation of the increase in overall satisfaction for the NHS is that it is likely to reflect a vote of support for the NHS as an institution in difficult times. A lack of objective improvement in NHS services and the fact that improvements in satisfaction appear to have been driven by an 11 percentage point increase in satisfaction among Labour supporters and those without recent contact with the service, may lend weight to this analysis. This may especially be the case given that some see the NHS as currently under threat, for example from privatisation, and some feel ministers and others have been too critical of the NHS and its staff.

Official measures of performance tell a different story: NHS funding has been under increasing pressure since 2010 and there have been well-publicised performance problems with high-profile targets such as the 4-hour A&E waiting time standard and the 18-week maximum wait from referral to treatment. At the same time, the media has featured negative stories about the financial position of NHS hospitals and the need for additional investment in the service.

This context suggests a possible alternative explanation for the increase in satisfaction in 2014. We know that what drives changes in satisfaction is not straightforward – and almost certainly is never simply satisfaction with the NHS per se, for all respondents to the survey. Political beliefs, attitudes towards the government of the day, media stories and expectations of the NHS will shape people’s satisfaction.

So, while satisfaction improved in 2014, this is not necessarily synonymous with an improvement in the actual performance of the NHS, nor does it simply reflect an actual improvement in satisfaction. Nevertheless, it is clear that public satisfaction with the NHS and support for it as an institution remains high.

I suggest you have a look at the report. Satisfaction is a different dimension from performance, good point. If overall performance is based on healthy life expectancy, then the conclusion for us would be the same. We have increased healthy life expectancy all these years.

Those that complain about austerity want to forget such results. Also journalists. They don't figure out that the issue is a balanced budget and cutbacks have not been applied on an ideological foundation as some pretend. Anybody can blame over budget cuts, but immediately they would have to understand what they would do at home if their income is 7 years less than  before (2013 GDP per capita is less than those in 2006!!!). For sure they would return to an expenditure level simliar to previously,  in one way or another. Can anyone defend that these are ideological budget cuts at home?.
You can't live permanently in increasing debt, I'm satiated of cheap populism. A dose of realism is required.

PS. As you may notice, realism begins after reading the data, but you have to read them.

Stratified medicine in Europe

Stratified medicine in European Medicines Agency licensing: a systematic review of predictive biomarkers

The potential of predictive biomarkers for the development of stratified medicine has been highlighted for more than a decade. The current situation is very concrete. In Europe, EMA has accepted 49 biomarker-indication-drug combinations over 16 years, mostly used in cancer and as a predictive of drug efficacy, and in a minor scale of drug toxicity (4 cases).
These data confirm that currently the new wave of "personalised" or stratified medicine is really minor, although the investments and return expectations are huge.

Given the large body of literature documenting research into potential predictive biomarkers and extensive investment into stratified medicine, we identified relatively few predictive biomarkers included in licensing. These were also limited to a small number of clinical areas.

 Just released

Healthy behavior strategies

Healthy Behavior Change in Practical Settings

This is the article to read today. If you don't have enough time, have a look at this figure and ask yourself if you can apply it.

PS. Afterwards you may fill the questionnaire (Article 4) to check your understanding.

Psychological wellbeing and health

Subjective wellbeing, health, and ageing

What is the relationship between wellbeing and age?. This is precisely what this article tries to disentangle considering three types of subjective wellbeing:

• Evaluative wellbeing: evaluations of how satisfied people are with their lives
• Hedonic wellbeing: feelings or moods such as happiness,sadness and anger
• Eudemonic wellbeing: judgments about the meaning and purpose of life

Is it possible that positive subjective wellbeing is a protective factor for health?
Their conclusion:

Research into subjective wellbeing and health at older ages is at an early stage. Nevertheless, the wellbeing of elderly people is important, and evidence suggests that positive hedonic states, life evaluation, and eudemonic wellbeing are relevant to health and quality of life as people age. Health-care systems should be concerned not only with illness and disability, but also with supporting methods to improve positive psychological states.

Do you have any clue of how to do it?

Deciding by default

Choosing Not to Choose. Understanding the Value of Choice

The core of the application of behavioural economics to decision making on health lies in my opinion in choice architecture. I explained that 2 years ago in this post. Now Cass Sunstein is providing us with a new book that shows the details and rules for "choosing no to choose", a must read.

The choice among impersonal default rules, active choosing, and personalized default rules cannot be made in the abstract.To know which is best, both choosers and choice architects need to investigate two factors: the costs of decisions and the costs of errors (understood as the number and magnitude of mistakes). An understanding of those kinds of costs does not tell us everything that we need to know, but it does help to orient the proper analysis of a wide range of problems.
It should be obvious that a default rule can much reduce the costs of decisions. When such a rule is in place, people do not need to focus on what to do; they can simply follow the default. But a default rule can also increase the costs of errors, at least if it does not fit people’s situations; it can lead them in directions that make their lives go worse.

In approaching the underlying issues, he shows five propositions. I'm right now in the middle of the book. I can't have a final opinion, however I'm sure that this will be a key reference for the future.

Knowing what works

A systematic review of barriers to and facilitators of the use of evidence by policymakers

Evidence-based health policy should be grounded on knowledge on what works. Too often we see that policy-maker decisions' are far from that. Understanding why, is the first step to fixing it. In this article you'll find a systematic review on this topic:

The most frequently reported barriers were the lack of availability to research, lack of relevant research, having no time or opportunity to use research evidence, policymakers' and other users not being skilled in research methods, and costs . The most frequently reported facilitators also included access to and improved dissemination of research, and existence of and access to relevant research. Collaboration and relationships between policymakers and research staff were all reported as important factors.

Incentives, a modern frame (2)

Ética de los incentivos a profesionales sanitarios

Revisitng this report released 5 years ago, and comparing some statements with a former post, I can find relevant differences. Though this one is applied and the former is more general, the perspective is focused on having clear answers to specific problems. The definition, appropriateness and foundations of the argument requires deeper elaboration, in my opinion. That's why I suggest you should read the book.

Incentives, a modern frame

Strings Attached: Untangling the Ethics of Incentives

I've found extremely appealing the chapter 2 of the book "Strings Attached", it helps to understand the etimology of incentives as a word in the english language and its meaning:

For more than 250 years, starting in about 1600, the word “incentive” meant “inciting or arousing to feeling or action, provocative, exciting.” Uses cited by the authoritative Oxford English Dictionary include: “The Lord Shaftesbury . . . made an incentive speech in the House of Lords (1734),” or “This Paper is principally designed as an incentive to the Love of our Country (1713).” The last example cited of the term in this sense is dated 1866 and, like the others, it comes from an English source. Then there is a striking change. “Mr. Charles E. Wilson . . . is urging war industries to adopt ‘incentive pay’—that is, to pay workers more if they produce more.” This is the first example from the same dictionary of the use of the term in its contemporary sense, and it is an American example dated three quarters of a century later in 1943.

There is a huge gap in time, place, and meaning between the two sorts of citations, a gap that introduces several puzzles. What was happening in America when the new meaning of incentives was introduced? Why is this conception missing from the vocabulary in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, the very years in which the idea of a market economy was being discovered and articulated? We are accustomed to believe that our thinking about political economy rests on the work of the likes of John Locke, Bernard Mandeville, Adam Smith, David Hume, Jeremy Bentham, James Mill, John Stuart Mill, and the authors of The Federalist Papers. But with very few exceptions, “incentive” does not appear in any of their writings.

Beyond chapter 2, the whole book deserves to be read.

Data, data, data

That's the buzzword: big data. You'll find it in the top articles of 2014 in Health Affairs or in the Forbes Health Care Summit. This summit is where to go if you want to know what's going on in health care in the US, otherwise you cuold have a look at the video. Wether this is really going to create more value widely still remains to be seen.

The politics of calories

Why Calories Count

Marion Nestle says in her book:

In some ways, the calorie environment could not have been more brilliantly constructed to overcome physiological controls of overeating.

The new labeling initiatives have been really minor up to now. Wether they will have beneficial effects in the long run is still unknown. Calorie labeling should be extended when eating outside home and to alcohol.
The government has not paid enough attention to food regulation and specially to information about calories. In the book there is a guide for improvement. This is the previous step in any nudging effort. To be clear, information disclosure is the very beginning of any consumer protection and health promotion policy in this field.

The pivotal role of MSF in global health

Life in Crisis: The Ethical Journey of Doctors Without Borders
MSF: how a humanitarian charity found itself leading the world’s response to Ebola

I've just finished reading a book on MSF, a compelling story of more than 4 decades of support in health and humanitarian crisis.

Life in Crisis tells the story of Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and its effort to save lives on a global scale. Begun in 1971 as a French alternative to the Red Cross, MSF has grown into an international institution with a reputation for outspoken protest as well as technical efficiency. It has also expanded beyond emergency response, providing for a wider range of endeavors, including AIDS care. Yet its seemingly simple ethical goal proves deeply complex in practice. MSF continually faces the problem of defining its own limits. Its minimalist form of care recalls the promise of state welfare, but without political resolution or a sense of well-being beyond health and survival. Lacking utopian certainty, the group struggles when the moral clarity of crisis fades. Nevertheless, it continues to take action and innovate. Its organizational history illustrates both the logic and the tensions of casting humanitarian medicine into a leading role in international affairs.

Their achievements are really impressive and nobody can imagine what could have happened this year with the Ebola outbreak without them. To understand their contribution I would like to recommend the article in BMJ:

 The charity had a team in Guinea when the outbreak began in March and has followed the virus as it has spread—building treatment centres in locations as disparate as the jungle and capital cities, deploying mobile units, providing technical support to governments, and training staff. Today MSF has more than 3400 staff on the ground (with one international staff member for every 10 local staff members) and says that it has cared for almost 4000 patients confirmed to have Ebola and many more suspected cases.

 We all have to appreciate their enormous work in such a difficult conditions and their example offers a good guide to understand that beyond governments, well organised nonprofit institutions play a critical role in supporting public health.

PS. I am quite concerned about the nurse's behaviour in the spanish ebola case. Yesterday she admitted that she hadn't told the physician about her exposure to an ebola case. This situation has strong ethical implications, does anybody care about it?

The growing evidence on compression of morbidity

Health, functioning, and disability in older adults—present status and future implications

There is currently a wide debate about chronic care and multimorbidity. Some messages appear that this is strictly connected with ageing, and forget the details. Though disease process have to be tackled, we have to ask ourselves about wellbeing in later life. A key issue is to understand its impact on functioning and disability. This is precisely what a recent article in The Lancet offers. The research question:

Will the years gained be productive and healthy, or will elderly people live longer lives in conditions of ill health? Three main hypotheses have been proposed to address this question.² The compression of morbidity hypothesis posits a situation for which the age of onset of morbidity is delayed to a greater extent than life expectancy rises, thereby compressing morbidity into a short period at a late age.³ The expansion of morbidity hypothesis maintains the opposite, that increases in life expectancy are matched or exceeded by added periods of morbidity.⁴ Both compression and expansion of morbidity could happen in absolute or relative terms—ie, changes in the absolute number of years lived with disability—or in terms of healthy life expectancy as a proportion of total life expectancy.

And a conclusion:

 Our systematic examination of the scientific literature shows that support for morbidity pattern hypotheses varies mainly according to the type of health indicator. Disability-related or impairment-related measures of morbidity tend to support the theory of compression of morbidity, whereas chronic disease morbidity tends to support the expansion of morbidity hypothesis.

This is an article to read and file for the future. The basic approach is defined, the difficulty is about the data. My impression is that we need to use morbidity adjusted life expectancy measures, as those I presented in this blog some months ago. The advantages are clear compared to healthy life expectancy that needs a lot of hypothesis and are based on surveys and self perceptions. Morbidity adjusted measures use  disease codes directly. Why not apply them widely?

PS. The whole series on ageing in The Lancet.

Fasten seat belts (3)

My former posts (1) and (2) alerted about the end of drug pricing as we have known and the begining of an opaque world where nobody knows how much money is involved in getting the value of a specific drug, except the manufacturer. The rationale for that are the confidential agreements between governments and drug firms. Up to now have been seven risk-sharing agreements, and beyond these, central government has set up additional five agreements. This latter agreements are really open-ended budgetary ceelings because it is difficult to estimate when the maximum amount is reached. This is precisely what it is explained by the official in charge of this issue in the journal.
Therefore we have changed the pricing system for an opaque open-ended budgetary ceeling system. It sounds incredible, but that's how it is. I can't believe that nobody worries about it.

PS. Genes and behaviour, on TE. I posted the initial research three years ago in this blog.

Health care under civil conflict

Current situation in Syria deserves a better understanding and international support. Beyond the refugee crisis there is a huge health tragedy:

More than 12 million people are impacted by the violence, with 7.6 million people displaced inside the country and more than 3 million displaced in neighboring nations. Some refugees live in formal camps, but the majority are living in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Refugees have also fled to Egypt and Iraq, and many remain inside Syria but have had to leave their homes. Many have also been affected by the terrorist Islamic State group.

A difficult moment, and things may get worse. I would like to suggest a look at this documentary from PBS Frontline:  The Rise of ISIS in english and in catalan here until Jan 18th.

Involved in our own health

People in control of their own health and care

 From King's Fund report:

Different perspectives (p.11)

• A consumerist approach: health and health care is seen as a marketplace in which patients (consumers) are involved by making choices about services, and the health care market responds to their preferences. Patient involvement is then a means to improve quality.
• A democratic approach: people have political, social and economic rights as citizens, and those who use or are affected by a public service should be involved in how it is run, and have certain rights regarding what they receive from that service.
• An ethical and outcomes-based approach: involvement is seen as the ethical thing to do, and the best approach to improve outcomes. This means recognising that good care comprises the application to individual circumstances of evidence-based medicine along with knowledge and experience. Patient involvement is essential to the judgement of relative risk and benefit associated with decision-making.
• A value-based approach: to achieve truly the best value for money from our health and care system, we must know and respond to what people need and want. In this way, we can deliver care that meets their preferences and patients receive ‘the care they need (and no less), and the care they want (and no more)’ (Mulley et al 2012).
• An approach based on sustainability: it is increasingly difficult for health systems to provide the best possible care to everyone as the prevalence of long-term conditions increases and the population ages. By involving people in managing their own health and care, and keeping well and independent, we can minimise our use of services.
• A person-centred care approach: our health and care system should be  focused on its users, promoting independence and co-ordinated around people’s full needs rather than being fragmented and siloed. Patient involvement is an essential component of delivering a more person-centred service that is tailored and responsive to individual needs and values.

The forgotten perspective in the list, though quoted in the text (p.16):  A behavioural economics approach: we try to do our best for our health but the autopilot decides without our full control. Some help (nudging) is needed.

The message:  "Embarking on an honest conversation about rights and responsibilities requires consideration of people’s motivation and the capability to engage."

PS. Nudging and the European Union, by Alberto Alemano.

PS. BIT Publication: EAST.Four simple ways to apply behavioural insights

PS. Regarding Hepatitis C treatment costs, It is good to remember this post by U. Reinhardt:

With this offer curve, a health system confronts the rest of the nation with two morally challenging questions:

1. Is there a maximum price above which society no longer wishes to purchase added QALYs from its health system, even with the most cost-effective treatments (e.g., Point C)?

2. Should that maximum price be the same for everyone, or could there be differentials – for example, a lower maximum price for patients covered by taxpayer-financed health programs (e.g., Medicaid, Tricare, the Veterans Administration health system and perhaps Medicare), a wide range of higher prices for premium-financed commercial insurance, depending on the generosity of the benefit package that the premium covers, and yet higher prices for wealthy people able to pay out of their own resources very high prices to purchases added QALYs for the family?

Collapse and equilibrium in public-private health care provision

The Public–Private Pendulum — Patient Choice and Equity in Sweden 

Circle and the NHS: operation game

The introduction of competition and private provision in publicly funded systems is under unstable equilibrium. The case of Sweden is explained in detail at NEJM. The focus of the article is on primary care and pharmacy.
The collapse of the first privately operated hospital of NHS is described in the FT.
Four years ago I quoted in this post a McKinsey report about how to introduce choice in health care.  The UK failure reflects at least that the government and Circle forgot to read the McKinsey article, while Sweeden has done its homework.



FT Video: Circle and the NHS: operation game
Jan 9, 2015 : Circle, the first private company to take over the running of an NHS hospital, said it was negotiating to end its contract on Friday, two years after it began. Lex's Oliver Ralph and Joseph Cotterill discuss what went wrong.

This is the end, and now what do we do?

Last November I wrote a post asking myself if we had arrived at the end of the public health care system  as we have known it. Today I confirm that we have arrived at this point. I am not alone in this feeling, check this blog, and you'll find similar views. It is really sad to see how a society can lose its opportunities for the future, because neighbours are enacting laws that block any potential solution.Therefore, if we can't change the law there is no need to agree on resolutions in our "Parliament" against it. We can't agree against rule of law, therefore what we have to do is to disconnect as soon as possible and create our own regulations.

Forget current troubles, enjoy this video clip by Juan Luís Guerra - Tus besos

Individual decisions and behaviours: the key for a better health

Informe de salut 2013

After looking at this report on the health of catalans, I would select three issues of general concern: premature death, overweight and alcohol intake (p.29). On premature death, there are five leading causes (p.28): lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, suicide, traffic accidents and other heart diseases. Lung cancer is related to tobaco consumption and we all know that this is the leading preventable cause of disease, disability and death. Though taxation may impact, it relates to an individual decision and behaviour.
The second issue, overweight, needs to be addressed through public policy and depends partially on individual decision and behaviour, again. And the same applies to alcohol intake.
We already knew all that, therefore, what is the next step?

The risk society

One of the most important achievements of our society is how we have been able to manage certain risks in the last century. The mandatory pooling of health risks is in my opinion the most crucial one. Risk regulation on different hazards has protected population from many damages. Medicines regulation agencies would be a good example of that if they worked properly, and we all know it is not always the case. However, it is much better to have them than not, as happens with medical devices in Europe.
Last week, Ulrich Beck died. He is one of the most prominent sociologists of our times. His book, The Risk Society, is still a key reference after four decades. Anthony Giddens has written an excellent obituary that reflects his contributions. We all have to learn from Beck's clever perspectives and observations. In my opinion, up to now we have been able to improve the social management of risks, however there are many shadows that raise doubts about the future. Some people call them the end of the welfare state, while I would like to focus is on new ways of risk protection that are affordable, given the current (and critical) state of public finances.

Health and income 2013

Understanding the autopilot and nudging it

Nudging: A Very Short Guide


Today I would suggest you to spend one hour watching an excellent documentary about "The magic of unconscious", in catalan here until Jan 9th, and in english here.

Cass  Sunstein recently has published the short guide to nudging and those interested in any concrete application should look at these ten tools:

1. Defaults
2. Simplification
3. Social norms
4. Increases in convenience
5. Disclosure
6. Warnings
7. Precommitments
8. Reminders
9. Eliciting intentions
10. Informing people of the nature and consequences of their own past choices.

Wether they may work or not depends on the details and environment. The hardest task.