A startling achievement

INFORME MENSUAL DE SEGUIMENT DE LA PRESTACIÓ FARMACÈUTICA

Pharmaceutical expenditure in 2012 has dropped 14,27%, double of last year. That's unusual, a confirmation of trend reversal started in 2011. The total expenditure was €1.450 m, the decrease in prices 8,2% and on prescriptions 6,5%. The exact reasons behind such a fall are known: the introduction of copayments, the reduction of prices and benefits, and the changes in prescription. We still don't know the size of the impact for each factor.
The question is only one: Has this change affected the population health?. If not, why have we had to wait until now to do it? Unfortunately we can't aswer properly right now. I expect we'll show results in some months time.
Anyway, on one hand my congratulations to the regulator -he has finished vacation at least in pharmaceuticals-, and on the other hand I would like to remind everyone that the expected decrease in the pharmaceutical budget was 27%, therefore the deviation is 13%. I said in this post that it was very difficult to acomplish. The facts confirm my prediction.

PS. January data confirm the trend, on interannual basis a decrease of 15,95%

PS. A non-democratic failed state, yesterday voted to block any potential self-determination referendum, although 78% of its deputees were asking for that. This is a clear message for the international community. Next steps are closer to unilateral declaration.

PS. The beloved princess of the king (not the queen) and lobbyist of the failed state in the press. NTA.

The collapse of managed competition

The colombian Health Minister has just announced the end of competition between insurers under a mandatory health insurance scheme. This is an important announcement, two decades after Ley 100, managed competition will be removed from health policy scene.
We still have to wait for the details, but the application of what Alain Enthoven considered the best efficient option to ensure competition and mandatory coverage is ending in Colombia. The reasons are multiple and difficult to summarise in a post. The explanation deserves a whole book. The breaking point has been the scandals, corruption and fraud in EPS, the insurers side. About 50 companies were intervened and the amounts of embezeled money are impressive. Crime has entered into health care arena.
In my opinion, the most important lesson is that the introduction of social experiments and innovations are not appropriate if regulators don't understand the concept and the tools to manage the system. The policy dynamics and short-term views act against any regulatory stability, unless the country is committed to preserve the underlying principles of the health system. Therefore, be careful on experiments, it can be extremely costly in social terms.

The greater good vs shopping

Engaged Patients Will Need Comparative Physician-Level Quality Data And Information About Their Out-Of-Pocket Costs

Access to quality and cost information for citizens is increasing in certain environments. Right now you can find for example the prevalence of nosocomial infection in acute care hospitals in Catalonia with a simple click (p.69). You can assess in advance the probability of being infected during your hospital stay and if you check the indicator you'll find wide variations. Unfortunately this information is not structured to take decisions.
A recent paper in HA groups two potential approaches, information for greater good vs. information for shopping.

The health care quality and cost reporting programs that fall under the “transparency for the greater good” model tend to be nonprofit and government initiatives focused on improving quality and efficiency, engaging consumers, and increasing awareness of variation in quality and cost. In contrast, the programs that fall under the “one-stop shopping” model tend to be private-sector initiatives that aim to provide personalized, integrated information on cost and quality to support consumers’ decision making regarding care providers and services.

Personnally, I'm not so convinced about the dissemination and use of such information to patients. I'm not so sure about the role of choice in general. I suggest you have a look at the book the Paradox of choice before entering into a dubious land. Anyway, I'm in favour for greater transparency, and initiatives like Central de Resultats are a good example, but I remain uncertain about its usefulness for " doctor shopping".

I should go to Viladecans exhibition on Espriu

The pieces of the puzzle

Charter for healthy living

Since we all agree that in developed world, non-communicable diseases are the greatest challenge for health, we are more and more convinced that the solution lies partly beyond the health care system. The issue is not to be convinced about this, the big question is how. And the answers may be different according to the approach. The World Economic Forum has just released a very interesting report and a toolkit on his topic. Though it is necessary to put together all the pieces of the puzzle, and there is a clear emphasis on a multistakeholder approach, I have the impression of some missing pieces. At least two: incentives and cognitive biases in behaviour and decision making. In this blog, I have pointed out the importance of it - remember Nudge or Mindspace- and I can't see it well reflected in the reports. Although there is a minor reference in the annex, you get the flavour of rational patients and governments, as rational consumers and regulators. The context and our departures from rationality are so important that we have to beware of them. Anyway, the most important is to have a look at the toolkit, not only to the report. The intention is clear, focus on the application.

Cristina Iglesias at Reina Sofia Museum

Patient focused episodes

We all know that no measurement means no management. In health care the measurement of the burden of disease is not that easy. Fortunately at a global level there is the recent study published at Lancet and quoted in this post. If we need to be precise in the measurement with consequences for health care management then we need better tools. Diseases finally appear around episodes, and we may have three type of episodes: event based, disease cohort and population based. The definition of episode needs to be patient-focused rather than disease centered. If you want to know the details of the newest approach to morbidity measurement have a look at this document. It is the evolution of former Clinical Risk Groups towards a new model that will be extremely helpful for management decision making and the definition of appropriate incentives.

PS. Some months ago I explained that new payment systems were in train of being defined. An impact analysis may be found here. My post was titled: A retrofuturist payment system. Now, I would like to change the title once I've seen the details, my proposal is: A complete MESS that needs to be rebuilt from scratch. (to be continued)

PS. Yesterday I attended a book presentation: "I am not Sidney Poitier", by Percival Everett. It was at La Central bookstore. Percival explained the rationale of the book and its subliminal messages.  This is not the kind of novel I'll read.

An active life ruled by reason

The humble economist

The works by Tony Culyer are so familiar for every health economist that we couldn't live without them. Those that have arrived a little bit late, now have the opportunity to read all his contributions in one book. My impression is that any university professor could create a syllabus following only this reader: Social Scientists and Social Science, Extra-Welfarism, Ethics, Need and Equity,Health Policy,Health Technology Assessment.
The introduction highlights his academic life, 250 articles, more than two dozens of books and a strong public impact of his works.
I still remember the first time I was reading about the extra-welfarist approach. In those days, the individual utility paradigm was the basis for any article you could read. I was feeling uncomfortable on the assumptions, Culyer gave the opportunity to open the windows for fresh air. Unfortunately his message has not always been understood and applied. Let me reproduce some paragraphs from the introduction:

Culyer’s concept of “extra-welfarism” helps to liberate health economists from the confines of the traditional “Paretian” or “welfarist” approach to evaluating alternative policies and institutions that dominated economic thinking in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Traditional “welfarist” economic analysis assumes that subjective individual preferences or “utilities” (understood either as the desires that motivate individual decisions or the feelings of happiness that may or may not follow those decisions) are the be all and end all of the social good when it comes to doing “economic” analysis properly. Culyer’s “extrawelfarist” approach allows economists to use additional sources of information about individual wellbeing or lourishing – i.e. additional to subjective desires and feelings – for evaluating alternative policies and institutions. In keeping with his professional humility, of course, he does not endorse any specific view of what constitutes a flourishing life: “Flourishing may mean different things to different people; all I require is that it be a high goal whose accomplishment gives a deep satisfaction to the one living it, and perhaps others too, as when it is said of someone who has died ‘that was a life well-lived’.

The concept of “extra-welfarism” builds upon the work of Amartya Sen, who first coined the term “welfarism” and wrote of the need to use “non-welfare” or “non-utility” information when assessing individual wellbeing. Culyer developed and refined this idea in the specific context of health care, showing in particular how non-welfare information about people’s health – and not merely people’s health-related preferences or desires – could be fruitfully used in the health care field. The three essays in turn set out the basic idea; develop and refine the distinction between “welfarist” and “extra-welfarist” approaches to health economics, in a multiauthor essay originally lead authored by the eminent Dutch health economist, Werner Brouwer; and then explore a range of different practical applications of both “welfarist” and “extra-welfarist” approaches in the health sector, showing how both can be fruitful in different contexts.

In this post I made some reviews of his recent work and here you'll find an interesting article that it is pending to be read and commented in this blog. 
Right now I only would like to share with all of you the opportunity to read the whole book again, some articles are not easy to find. Definitely, it is a reference book for any person interested in Health, Health Care and Social Decision Making, as it says the subtitle.
Congratulations!

PS. Check the extra-welfarist approach in p.59 of this excellent book of Vicente Ortún.

A new quality measurement paradigm

Quality Measure, Based On Health Outcomes, That Compares Current Care To A Target Level Of Care

The works by David Eddy et al. are a must read always. The latest one at HA February is specially relevant because it represents the introduction of new tools for measuring quality. The abstract says:

The quality of health care is measured today using performance measures that calculate the percentage of people whose health conditions are managed according to specified processes or who meet specified treatment goals. This approach has several limitations. For instance, each measure looks at a particular process, risk factor, or biomarker one by one, and each uses sharp thresholds for defining “success” versus “failure.” We describe a new measure of quality called the Global Outcomes Score (GO Score), which represents the proportion of adverse outcomes expected to be prevented in a population under current levels of care compared to a target level of care, such as 100 percent performance on certain clinical guidelines.

The tool-kit of this Global Outcomes Score is the Archimedes Model. Some months ago I devoted several posts to it. I'm absolutely sure that this approach has wide implications for our health system and I don't understand why we should delay its application. Eddy explains that in several specific situations -mostly population based- more quality represents less costs (-38%!!! p.2446). This is another excellent example of clever budget cuts. Are there any intelligent readers able to apply it? How long will we have to wait for it?

PS. If you don't have access to HA, go through Archimedes webpage.