Showing posts sorted by relevance for query uncertainty. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query uncertainty. Sort by date Show all posts

May 12, 2020

What is going on here?

 Radical Uncertainty
Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
The question ‘What is going on here?’ sounds banal, but it is not. In our careers we have seen repeatedly how people immersed in technicalities, engaged in day-to-day preoccupations, have failed to stand back and ask, ‘What is going on here?’ We have often made that mistake ourselves.
This is precisely the question that Mervyn King and John Kay pose in their new book Radical Uncertainty. Terrific reading for lockdown days. Below, I've selected some statements:
 The difference between risk and uncertainty was the subject of lively debate in the inter-war period. Two great economists – Frank Knight in Chicago and John Maynard Keynes in Cambridge, England – argued forcefully for the continued importance of the distinction. Knight observed that ‘a measurable uncertainty, or “risk” proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all’
The title of this book, and its central concept, is radical uncertainty . Uncertainty is the result of our incomplete knowledge of the world, or about the connection between our present actions and their future outcomes. Depending on the nature of the uncertainty, such incomplete knowledge may be distressing or pleasurable. I am fearful of the sentence the judge will impose, but look forward to new experiences on my forthcoming holiday. We might sometimes wish we had perfect foresight, so that nothing the future might hold could surprise us, but a little reflection will tell us that such a world would be a dull place.
We have chosen to replace the distinction between risk and uncertainty deployed by Knight and Keynes with a distinction between resolvable and radical uncertainty. Resolvable uncertainty is uncertainty which can be removed by looking something up (I am uncertain which city is the capital of Pennsylvania) or which can be represented by a known probability distribution of outcomes (the spin of a roulette wheel). With radical uncertainty, however, there is no similar means of resolving the uncertainty – we simply do not know. Radical uncertainty has many dimensions: obscurity; ignorance; vagueness; ambiguity; ill-defined problems; and a lack of information that in some cases but not all we might hope to rectify at a future date. These aspects of uncertainty are the stuff of everyday experience.
Radical uncertainty cannot be described in the probabilistic terms applicable to a game of chance. It is not just that we do not know what will happen. We often do not even know the kinds of things that might happen.
Our ability as humans to deal with radical uncertainty is the product of our much greater capacity for social learning and greater ability to communicate relative to other species. We are social animals; we manage radical uncertainty in a context determined by the knowledge we have acquired through education and experience, and we make important decisions in conjunction with others – friends, family, colleagues and advisers.
Reference to the ‘wisdom of crowds’ makes an important point while missing another. The crowd always knows more than any individual, but what is valuable is the aggregate of its knowledge, not the average of its knowledge.

April 17, 2020

A known unknown

Coronavirus and the Limits of Economics
Why standard economic theories have no answers for this kind of crisis

You'll find an interesting article in FP

Economists have long made the distinction between uncertainty and risk. Uncertainty is typically understood as involving outcomes that cannot straightforwardly be assigned a probability, unlike risk. Economics offers limited resources to understand how to make decisions in the presence of fundamental uncertainty. But a still deeper form of uncertainty is one in which the possible outcomes cannot easily be anticipated at all. Such a wildly unpredictable outcome has come to be popularly known in recent years as a black swan event.
 The coronavirus pandemic might at first appear to have been such a black swan event, but that claim does not withstand scrutiny: The possibility of such a threat was long recognized by experts. This recognition led to scenarios being discussed at the highest levels of governments. The possibility of a pandemic was therefore a “known unknown” rather than an “unknown unknown.”
Consider that an economy cannot be separated from society: It is socially embedded. The notion that the economy can be analyzed independently of the public health, political, or social processes—often promoted by the dominant tradition in economics and reflected in general equilibrium theory—is shown by the pandemic to be not merely fragile but false.
PS D Rumsfeld stated:

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.


Galeria Marlborough

August 7, 2011

Ara toca (prioritzar) (2)

La decisió d'ahir del NICE suposa tot un repte per a d'altres governs europeus. Va considerar que el fingolimod per a esclerosi múltiple no havia de ser finançat pel NHS. Destaco dos paràgrafs clau de la resolució:
In summary, the Committee believed that the manufacturer’s base case ICER for fingolimod of £55,600 per QALY gained compared with Avonex for population 1b was subject to considerable uncertainty and an underestimation of the most plausible ICER for the following reasons:
  • Avonex is not an appropriate comparator for population 1b. Using more appropriate comparators such as best supportive care or Rebif-44 for population 1b increased the ICERs substantially. To establish the most plausible ICERs for population 2, a comparison with natalizumab would need to be considered.
  • More plausible assumptions regarding the long term treatment effectiveness increased the ICERs.
  • Inaccuracies in the administration costs employed in the model are likely to have led to an underestimation of the ICERs.
  • Data chosen to model the natural history of disease progression were derived from a population that was unrepresentative of the current UK population with multiple sclerosis. This led to uncertainty in the model results.
  • Utility data from the clinical trials should have been used in the model and supplemented by published sources only for estimates for higher EDSS scores not represented by the populations in the trials. This led to uncertainty in the model results.
The Committee concluded that an analysis that relied on a combined set of plausible assumptions (see section 4.17) would be certain to produce ICERs that substantially exceed the range it could consider to represent a cost-effective use of NHS resources. The most plausible ICERs for fingolimod for the treatment of relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis in the base case population (population 1b) is likely to be above £94,000 per QALY gained compared with best supportive care and above £79,000 per QALY gained in the subgroup of population 1b in which people with rapidly evolving severe disease were excluded. Therefore fingolimod cannot be recommended as a cost-effective use of NHS resources.
Cal llegir el document sencer perquè esdevé més interessant comprendre l'avaluació de l'efectivitat abans que el cost-efectivitat. Les notícies que en sorgiran poden contenir biaixos interessats. Observo una preocupació per l'efectivitat que aporta i en canvi les notícies se centraran en el cost-efectivitat. Ara hi ha unes setmanes per avaluar aquesta decisió i després hi haurà la resolució definitiva.
El medicament ja està aprovat al mercat tant a UK com aquí i podria suposar un nou serial com va succeir amb Tysabri, si bé en aquell cas centrat en qüestions de seguretat.
L'esclerosi múltiple és una malaltia que demana noves teràpies però que hi ha dificultats fonamentals per l'abordatge. El NICE va mantenir un conflicte important amb els interferons ja fa uns anys. Ara amb aquesta decisió pot ser un pròleg de nova controvèrsia. Aquest conflicte es podria resoldre en primer lloc aportant dades sobre efectivitat o també canviant el preu, de fet el preu britànic és un terç inferior al dels USA, però no n'hi hauria prou. Podria ser que aquí la propera reunió de la comissió interministerial de preus ho aprovés sense cap anàlisi similar (preu aprox. tractament anual 22.000 euros). En definitiva, ara tocaria prioritzar sobre bases fonamentades i tinc la impressió que ho deixarem per un altre moment. Crec que per al regulador d'aquí tant li fa la decisió del NICE. Ara bé, i als ciutadans?.

December 25, 2021

Risk-sharing agreements for drugs (3)

 Characterization of the Pharmaceutical Risk‑Sharing Arrangement Process in Catalonia


Table 1

Uncertainty type, scope, and considered variables for drug assessment

Uncertainty typeUncertainty scopeConsidered variables
ClinicalEfficacy, effectiveness, and safetyTime frame
Clinical trial phase
Patient characteristics
Primary endpoint
Surrogate endpoints
Active comparator
Sensitivity analysis
Statistical analysis
Patient subgroup analyses
Time frames for treatment follow-up
FinancialBI and CEIndication extension and concretion
Treatment regimen
Potentially replaceable treatments
Net financial impact of treatment inclusion/replacement
Potential use extensions
Other modifications in use of resources linked to new treatment
Availability of CE or CU studies

Adapted from []



July 20, 2011

Vestits a mida (3)

The Combined Analysis of Uncertainty and Patient Heterogeneity in Medical Decision Models

Fa dues dècades es parlava de com la intel.ligència artificial s'aplicaria a la medicina. El cert és que aquella febre va passar i es van obrir noves escletxes en aquell edifici en construcció. Ara, que es porten els vestits a mida novament, acaba de publicar-se a Medical Decision Making un article que ofereix una nova aproximació a la presa de decisions amb incertesa. El text presenta complexitat, i l'exemple del final ho aclareix prou bé. Ens mostra com individualitzar les taules de risc cardiovascular, en definitiva com tractar l'heterogeneitat dels pacients i la incertesa dels paràmetres que estem analitzant. Destaco:
We explained how the analysis of patient heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty can inform medical decisions. Modeling patient heterogeneity is required to determine the optimal intervention for each patient. Modeling parameter uncertainty allows for value of information analyses to determine whether additional
research regarding a decision is justified.

En Weinstein et al. també es preocupen del mateix a Plos One, definitivament tornen els sastres i modistes.

PS. En Quim Monzó s'ha quedat de pedra quan el màgic Cambras ha fet un truc espectacular. Ha demanat que pensés un número d'una carta i a en Basté un pal, i l'ha endevinat, el 8 de cors. En Quim Monzó ha exclamat: "Tu ets molt bo". I ja no ha tingut més paraules. Comparteixo la sorpresa, puc confirmar-ho perquè l'any passat va fer el truc davant meu i encara estic perplex.

PS. Sentiset. Així és com anomenaven a Carles Sentís a La Publicitat. Ell mateix ho explicava a l'entrevista a Catalunya Radio que van emetre novament ahir. Persona i periodista únic, testimoni d'excepció del segle XX ens ha deixat. La forma com ell entenia el periodisme, també es va acabar fa dies. Quin abisme separa l'imperi Murdoch de la contribució de Sentís al periodisme!.Llegiu "Vint-i-vuit hores e Transmiserià" escrit l'any 32.

PS. El decàleg de Metges de Catalunya no passaria pel sedàs d'un codi d'ètica com el de l'American Medical Association. Al primer punt del decàleg s'aturaria. Diu:
Anteposa el teu criteri clínic i fes prevaler la qualitat assistencial. No diagnostiquis influenciat per criteris d’estalvi econòmic
Mentre que l'AMA diu:
While physicians should be conscious of costs and not provide or prescribe unnecessary medical services, concern for the quality of care the patient receives should be the physician’s first consideration. This does not preclude the physician, individually or through medical or other organizations, from participating in policy-making with respect to social and economic issues affecting health care
Heu caigut al parany. La qüestió és una altra, correspon a un sindicat fer codis d'ètica?

April 7, 2011

Experiments, comportament i MAOA

Si hi ha una branca de l'economia que creix notòriament és l'economia experimental i del comportament. I a partir d'avui és notícia a Barcelona perquè hi ha el congrés internacional sobre la qüestió, IMEBE.
Dels abstracts destaco aquest:
Genetic susceptibility for individual cooperation preferences: The role of monoamine oxidase a gene (MAOA) in the voluntary provision of public goods
Michele Griessmaier. University of Trier
Vanessa Mertins. University of Trier
Andrea Schote-Frese. University of Trier
Wolfgang Hoffeld. IAAEG. University of Trier
Jobst Meyer. University of Trier
Abstract
In the context of social dilemmas, previous research has shown that human cooperation is mainly based on the social norm of conditional cooperation. While in most cases individuals behave according to such a norm, deviant behavior is no exception. Recent research further suggests that heterogeneity in social behavior might be associated with varying genetic predispositions. In this study, we investigated the relationship between individuals' behavior in a public goods experiment and the promoter-region functional repeat polymorphism in the monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA). In a dynamic setting of decreasing uncertainty, we were able to analyze differences in two main components of conditional cooperation, namely the players' own contribution and their beliefs regarding the contribution of other players. We showed that there are significant associations between individuals' behavior in a repeated public goods game and MAOA. Our results suggest that male carriers of the low activity alleles cooperate significantly less than those carrying the high activity alleles given a situation of high uncertainty. With decreasing uncertainty about the others' cooperativeness, the genetic effect diminishes. Furthermore, significant opposing effects for female subjects carrying two low activity alleles were observed.
Els aimants de la predicció del comportament social restaran satisfets, i d'altres com jo, ens mantindrem escèptics a l'espera de nous resultats. Cal dir que el tema del MAOA, el gen del guerrer, farà parlar.

May 31, 2017

Controversies on QALYs

The Limitations of QALY: A Literature Review

After 50 years, valuing health using QALYs is still a daunting task. Basically the debate over ethical considerations, methodological issues and theoretical assumptions, and context or disease specific considerations is still alive. And I would add that it will remain as an open issue. Those that would like a simple metric for a complex issue will fail forever. And this pitfalls are translated to decision making when QALYs are the reference for resource allocation.
I'm unsure about what will be the next step. A recent article explains current limitations, but unfortunately I can't foresee alternative options for the future:

Debate continues to exist on whether QALYs should serve as the central means of health economics analysis. This review examines the potential shortfalls of QALYs, spanning current ethical, methodological, and contextual domains in addition to examining their suitability for regenerative medicine and future technologies. In the UK, NICE currently stipulates a threshold of £20 000 - £30 000 per QALY  when evaluating new therapeutics and/or technologies for NHS adoption, and has used this tool to apply a rational and transparent process to technological adoption for over ten years. Calculating QALY or cost effectiveness thresholds is particularly complex and debate has previously been publicized on whether the value of a QALY should be dictated by first proposing the worth of a QALY and setting the healthcare budget at or below that value, or alternatively, proposing a healthcare budget and then allowing the cost of a QALY to declare itself following purchasing decisions. With the advent of cellular based therapeutics and their comparably high upfront costs, the QALY calculation methodology may need refinement to realise the financial advantages and opportunity costs such interventions may convey – particularly considering the degree of uncertainty associated with them.
Meanwhile we should focus on improving comparative effectiveness of current and new technologies, specially those that are related to precision medicine.



 

 
Dr. Heisenberg's Magic Mirror of Uncertainty, 1998
 

May 3, 2020

Health vs. wealth in a pandemic

HEALTH VS. WEALTH? PUBLIC HEALTH POLICIES AND THE ECONOMY DURING
COVID-19

A NBER paper says:
A pandemic can impact an economy in many ways: reductions in people’s willingness
to work, dislocations in consumption patterns and lower consumption, added stress on the financial system, and greater uncertainty leading to lower investment. These are
respectively referred to as (labor) supply shocks, demand shocks, financial shocks and
uncertainty shocks. Connected economies and epidemiological communities also move in synch. Even a healthy economy, or an economy that has not mandated a shutdown, may feel the impact of external events. With the exception of the 1918 influenza, recent
pandemics have neither had as large of a global impact, nor has there been as much real
time data available to empirically assess the economic and public health impact of NPIs.
We study outcomes during the Covid-19 pandemic.
We have three main results. First, our analysis shows NPIs may have been effective
in slowing the growth rate of confirmed cases of Covid-19 but not in decreasing the growth rate of cumulative mortality. Second, we find evidence of spillovers. NPIs may have impacts on other jurisdictions. Finally, there is little evidence that NPIs are associated with larger declines in local economic activity than in places without NPIs.


February 15, 2020

Trade-offs in algorithmic clinical decision making

On the ethics of algorithmic decision-making in healthcare

Great article.
Clinicians, or their respective healthcare institutions, are facing a dilemma: while there is plenty of evidence of machine learning algorithms outsmarting their human counterparts, their deployment comes at the costs of high degrees of uncertainty. On epistemic grounds, relevant uncertainty promotes risk-averse decision-making among clinicians, which then might lead to impoverished medical diagnosis. From an ethical perspective, deferring to machine learning algorithms blurs the attribution of accountability and imposes health risks to patients. Furthermore, the deployment of machine learning might also foster a shift of norms within healthcare. It needs to be pointed out, however, that none of the issues we discussed presents a knockout argument against deploying machine learning in medicine.


February 1, 2022

Option value of healthcare technologies

 Broadening the Concept of Value: A Scoping Review on the Option Value of Medical Technologies

Key messages, 

Traditionally, cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted from the payer perspective, although the question of whether they should be expanded to take a broader perspective continues to animate a lively debate. Lately, the attention has focused on wider components of benefits, including the so-called  option value. Our scoping review provides a comprehensive synthesis of conceptual and empirical aspects related to this topic recently introduced in the value assessment framework debate.

From a conceptual standpoint, the coexistence of 3 distinct definitions of option value in the literature emerging from our scoping review urges us to advocate for greater clarity of language in future research. We recommend using “insurance value” when referring to the utility of knowing that one may have access to a healthcare service should one need it in the future, as in definition A. Definition B mainly relates to decision making under uncertainty and specifically to the value of deferring uncertain unrecoverable decisions to a later time. In the evaluation of healthcare technologies and programs, this dimension of value originates from the possibility of delaying a reimbursement/adoption decision, if there is an expectation that better information on a technology’s (cost-) effectiveness will become  available in the future—for example, because a new clinical trial reports its results. Because this definition is rooted in financial options theory and its application to capital investment decisions, we recommend using the term “real option value,” consistently with the terminology used outside the healthcare sector 

According to the third definition, the claimed value does not originate from the uncertainty around a decision and the flexibility of deferring it, as in definition B, but rather it stems from the consideration that the value of a life-extending technology should also include the benefits of future treatments that otherwise would be precluded to patients if they did not benefit from improved survival. This definition of value pertains to the broader discussion on whether future costs and benefits not directly linked to the intervention being assessed should be accounted for when evaluating a technology.Therefore, we recommend that research related to this definition adopt the term “option value of survival.”

To date, no consensus has been reached yet


Les escaliers de la rue Chappe  à Montmartre.

May 15, 2015

The threshold strategy for decision making

When is rational to order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment: the threshold model as an explanation of practice variation

Physicians are often forced to act (e.g. order a diagnostic test or prescribe treatment) in face of  diagnostic uncertainty. Theories of decision-making indicate that physicians should act when the benefit of such an action outweighs its harms (for a given probability of disease). According to the threshold model when faced with uncertainty about whether to treat, order a test, or simply observe the patient, there may exist some probability of disease at which a physician is indifferent  between administering versus not administering treatment and ordering versus not ordering a diagnostic test . These are known as the treatment threshold, the test-treatment threshold and testing threshold, respectively.
 If physicians estimate treatment benefits, treatment harms, and test performance similarly, and integrate those into a threshold which they heed, this would result in more uniform medical practice. However, a vast body of empirical research has demonstrated significant variation in medical practice: seemingly similar patients are treated differently by diferent physicians.
Why is this so?. The authors explain in the article the differences between normative thresholds and descriptive ones and what to do about it: change the perspective - ‘target decision making, not geography"-. (?). A must read.
We demonstrate here that the threshold concept ultimately relates to the question of rational decision-making. Surprisingly, however, little empirical work has been published on the threshold models, or using the threshold concept as a theoretical platform to investigate clinical decision-making. This calls for the renewed interest in comparing ‘derived [or descriptive] thresholds with prescriptive thresholds obtained by decision analysis’, the call which was issued almost 30 years ago but left unheeded probably because of the lack of theoretical developments. However, the last 30–40 years have seen remarkable theoretical developments in the fields of cognitive sciences and decision-making such as dual-processing theories that have emerged as the important contenders for redefinition of rational choice. Understanding which theory underpins physicians’ and patients’ decision-making must be a key policy and research priority.

November 9, 2017

Uncertainty and regret in medicine

The Power of Regret

While reading NEJM I find an article on regret:
As physicians, we are acutely aware of the element of uncertainty in medicine, but we less often recognize its close companion, regret. Regret in all its forms can be a powerful undercurrent, moving patients to act in ways that may baffle us.
Kahneman and Tversky said  that bad outcomes from recent action are more regretted than similar outcomes from inertia. There two types of bias that affect regret. Omission bias is the tendency toward inaction or inertia — reflects anticipated regret. Commission bias is the tendency to believe that action is better than inaction, and can result in regret arriving later when a bad outcome occurs.
When we’re in pain or acutely anxious, we are “hot” and apt to make choices that we imagine will rapidly remedy our condition, which predisposes us to commission bias. In a hot state, patients may discount too deeply the risks posed by a treatment and overestimate its likelihood for success, paving the way for later regret if the outcome is poor. Patients who choose elective procedures while in a hot
state and end up with a bad outcome may be at particular risk for regret due to commission bias.
Georges Seurat. Two Sailboats at Grandcamp (Deux voiliers à Grandcamp), c. 1885.
Oil on panel, BF1153. Public Domain. Barnes Foundation

May 26, 2020

How epidemic-macroeconomic models of pandemic create uncertainty

Dealing with Covid-19: understanding the policy choices

A model is as good as its assumptions!. This is obvious and the application requires good data. Both issues, assumptions and data are the reasons why many models doesn't fit in this pandemic. Bad assumptions and bad data give bad conclusions. Have a look at this paper and in p.5 you'll find the different health and economic impact of models under different assumptions. So different that require a clever explanation if somebody wants to use them to take a decision.
VSL-based and SIR-macro models have helped to inform policy decisions in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the existing models are subject to a number of caveats, particularly relating to the uncertainty of their underlying epidemiological projections and stylised economic foundations.

 Juan Genovés

August 26, 2014

The uncertainty over genomics sequencing value in clinical decision making

Assessing Genomic Sequencing Information for Health Care Decision Making: Workshop Summary

"The value of genetic sequence information will depend on how it is used in the clinic", key statement that needs some elaboration. This is precisely what the IOM report does, you'll find in their pages the current situation about how genomics may impact in decision making. In chapter 5 you'll understand how an insurer decides about coverage of such tests according to 5 criteria:
1. The test or treatment must have final approval from appropriate governmental regulatory bodies, where required;
2. scientific evidence must permit conclusions about its effect on medical outcomes;
3. technology must improve net health outcomes;
4. the technology must provide as much health benefit as established alternatives; and
5. the improvement in health must be attainable outside investigational settings.
Unfortunately, if you start from the first one, you'll find a complete lack of references by governmental bodies on the approval of such tests. Therefore, I can't understand from the chapter how successful they are on such process.
While reading the book you'll increase your uncertainty about outcomes and value of genomic tests instead of reducing it. This was my impression. Let's wait for future good news, again.

PS. Summary of the report:
"Clinical use of DNA sequencing relies on identifying linkages between diseases and genetic variants or groups of variants. More than 140,000 germline mutations have been submitted to the Human Gene Mutation Database and almost 12,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms have currently been associated with various diseases, including Alzheimer’s and type 2 diabetes, but the majority of associations have not been rigorously confirmed and may play only a minor role in disease. Because of the lack of evidence available for assessing variants, evaluation bodies have made few recommendations for the use of genetic tests in health care."

May 25, 2018

The p53 nightmare

p53 and Me

This week you'll find a short piece in NEJM, a story written by a physician on how detecting a genetic p53 mutation changed her views. Key message:
Genetic knowledge is power only if both clinician and patient are equipped to move beyond a result and toward action, even if that merely means living well with what we know. I believe we need an expanded definition of genetic counseling; we require more data, yes, but also more sophisticated and sensitive ways of assimilating such data. And not just into databases we can mine to see what happens to people like me, but into programs for learning to live with uncertainty.

September 2, 2016

Predictive modeling in health care (2)

Analysing the Costs of Integrated Care: A Case on Model Selection for Chronic Care Purposes

How do you want to manage, with a rearview mirror or just looking forward? Big data allows to look forward with better precision. The uncertainty about the disease and about the cost of care is large when you enter in hospital from an emergency department. But, after the diagnosis (morbidity), could we estimate how much could cost an episode?. If so, then we could compare the expected cost and the observed cost on a continous process.
Right now this is possible. Check this article that we have just published and you'll understand that costs of different services according to morbidity can be reckoned and introduced in health management. This analysis goes beyong our former article, much more general. So, what are we waiting for? Big data is knocking at the door of health care management, predictive modeling is the tool.


Amazing concert by Caravan Palace in Sant Feliu de Guixols three weeks ago.

June 3, 2020

The narrative of pandemics (2)

Información científica especializada, información pública y medios de comunicación durante la crisis del coronavirus

Today you'll find our article on communication in pandemic times in Blog Economía y Salud AES, how markets of attention and radical uncertainty drive current situation.


David Hockney

October 30, 2012

El valor d'un any de vida

 VALUING QALY GAINS BY APPLYING A SOCIETAL PERSPECTIVE

D'ençà que es varen formular els QALYs aprofitant la teoria de la decisió i la utilitat esperada, varen aixecar una gran expectativa. Vegeu-ne aquesta revisió a Value in Health. Però alhora la metodologia ha estat objecte de controvèrsia continuada. Llegeixo a Health Economics un article recent que aposta per la valoració social dels anys de vida ajustats per qualitat i ho fa amb una estimació empírica de la disponibilitat a pagar. Aquest és el resum:
Interpreting the outcomes of cost utility analyses requires an appropriately defined threshold for costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). A common view is that the threshold should represent the (consumption) value a society attaches to a QALY. So far, individual valuations of personal health gains have mainly been studied rather than potentially relevant social values. In this study, we present the first direct empirical estimates of the willingness to pay for a QALY from a societal perspective. We used the contingent valuation approach, valuing QALYs under uncertainty and correcting for probability weighting. The estimates obtained in a representative sample of the Dutch population (n = 1004) range from €52,000 to €83,000, depending on the specification of the societal perspective.
I tornem a ser on érem. Mitjançant l'estimació d'uns escenaris d'estat de salut (29) en el marc del controvertit qüestionari EQ-5D, s'arriba a unes disponibilitats a pagar que no podem saber-ne amb profunditat si es corresponen amb el valor social. Entre d'altres coses perquè la gent valora els escenaris en funció de si es troba en ells, si si ha trobat o si pot trobar-s'hi en el futur. I això és molt difícil d'ajustar. I sé que ho han fet el millor que han sabut i pogut, però no em convenç. Això vol dir que cal seguir cercant o deixar-ho empíricament al regulador enlloc de preguntar a la gent.

PS. Suggeriment. Feu un cop d'ull a l'article recent d'en Josep Maria Via.  La reflexió és oportuna, convé comprendre millor quina és l'eficiència abans de decidir si cal optar per formes organitzatives de control administratiu, o d'auditoria financera.
Tot i així hi ha una peça que falta. A més d'altres aspectes, l'error governamental inicial va ser no incloure la compensació acurada per amortització i noves inversions dins el sistema de pagament hospitalari. Al mantenir-ho fora del sistema, les subvencions a la inversió en els hospitals concertats van ser una eina clientelar per uns i altres que ha acabat en majoria pública del capital dels hospitals afectats. Convé revertir l'error inicial, situar les coses al seu lloc, i incentivar acuradament per assolir major valor.

Ho vaig dir fa dies. Ara en un pin.
En vull un!

April 18, 2021

Covid and social perspectives

 THE COVID-19 CRISIS. Social Perspectives

In Chapter 13

13 Post-pandemic Routes in the Context of Latin Countries: The Impact of COVID-19 in Italy and Spain by Anna Sendra, Jordi Farré, Alessandro Lovari and Linda Lombi

In terms of health and risk communication, the COVID crisis has emphasised the lack of specific training in crisis and emergency communication of many public sector organisations, including health institutions. This first social media pandemic has been a major challenge for health communicators; individuals often failed in effectively communicating data and numbers to counteract the infodemic and thus reduce the impact of false narratives. With the increasing diversification of social media platforms, ‘individuals’ health […] will be shaped by a multitude of social forces, each of which can mediate different kinds of health contagion processes’ (Zhang and Centola, 2019). Mitigating the spread of fake news seems to involve coordinated efforts between authorities, mass media and digital companies, but it also appears crucial to invest in education and digital literacy for developing a critical awareness of the use of digital technologies that could be useful for facing future health crises. In other words, the strengthening of comprehensive population-centred responses lies on finding answers concerning how the mechanisms of public concern will operate to engage in coherent protection rules or in what ways the forms of interaction will change

Outline of the book:

PART I: INTRODUCTION

1 COVID Society: Introduction to the Book

Deborah Lupton and Karen Willis

2. Contextualising COVID-19: Sociocultural Perspectives on Contagion

Deborah Lupton

PART II: SPACE, THE BODY AND MOBILITIES

3. Moving Target, Moving Parts: The Multiple Mobilities of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Nicola Burns, Luca Follis, Karolina Follis and Janine Morley

4. Physical Activity and Bodily Boundaries in Times of Pandemic

Holly Thorpe, Julie Brice and Marianne Clark

5. City Flows During Pandemics: Zooming in on Windows

Oimpia Mosteanu

6. The Politics of Touch-Based Help for Visually Impaired Persons During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Autoethnographic Account

Hidi Lourens

PART III: INTIMACIES, SOCIALITIES AND CONNECTIONS

7. #DatingWhileDistancing: Dating Apps as Digital Health Technologies During the COVID-19 Pandemic

David Myles, Stefanie Duguay and Christopher Dietzel

8. ‘Unhome’ Sweet Home: The Construction of New Normalities in Italy During COVID-19

Veronica Moretti and Antonio Maturo

9. Queer and Crip Temporalities During COVID-19: Sexual Practices, Risk and Responsibility

Ryan Thorneycroft and Lucy Nicholas

10. Isol-AID, Art and Wellbeing: Posthuman Community Amid COVID-19

Marissa Willcox, Anna Hickey-Moody and Anne M. Harris

PART IV: HEALTHCARE PRACTICES AND SYSTEMS

11. Strange Times in Ireland: Death and the Meaning of Loss Under COVID-19

Jo Murphy-Lawless

12. Between an Ethics of Care and Scientific Uncertainty: Dilemmas of General Practitioners in Marseille

Romain Lutaud, Jeremy K. Ward, Gaëtan Gentile and Pierre Verger

13 Post-pandemic Routes in the Context of Latin Countries: The Impact of COVID-19 in Italy and Spain

Anna Sendra, Jordi Farré, Alessandro Lovari and Linda Lombi

14. Risky Work: Providing Healthcare in the Age of COVID-19

Karen Willis and Natasha Smallwood

PART V: MARGINALISATION AND DISCRIMINATION

15. The Plight of the Parent-Citizen? Examples of Resisting (Self-)Responsibilisation and Stigmatisation by Dutch Muslim Parents and Organisations During the COVID-19 Crisis

Alex Schenkels, Sakina Loukili and Paul Mutsaers

16. Anti-Asian Racism, Xenophobia and Asian American Health During COVID-19

Aggie J. Yellow Horse

17. Ageism and Risk During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Peta S. Cook, Cassie Curryer, Susan Banks, Barbara Barbosa Neves, Maho Omori, Annetta H. Mallon and Jack Lam