Dying from COVID

 Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries

The total mortality effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is the difference between the observed number of deaths from all causes and the number of deaths had the pandemic not occurred, which is not directly measurable. The most common approach to calculating the number of deaths had the pandemic not occurred has been to use the average number of deaths over previous years—for example, the most recent 5 years—for the corresponding week or month when the comparison is made. This approach, however, does not take into account changes in population size and age structure, nor long- and short-term trends in mortality, which are particularly pronounced for some age groups52,53. Nor does this approach account for time-varying factors, such as temperature, that are largely external to the pandemic but also affect death rates.

We developed an ensemble of 16 Bayesian mortality projection models that each make an estimate of weekly death rates that would have been expected if the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred. We used multiple models because there is inherent uncertainty in the choice of model that best predicts death rates in the absence of pandemic. 

I suggest you to find where is Spain... 

Comparison of percent increase in deaths from any cause as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic between men and women, for all ages and by age group.

 

Markets in Healthcare, some weaknesses and what to do about them

 The Role of Market Forces in U.S. Health Care

No market functions perfectly, however, and health care markets are more imperfect than most.

The article explains weaknesses of the market and some potential fine tunning to avoid them. And says: 

Many of the “single-payer” health care systems around the world have some market components, and many are actually expanding the role of markets. The more important question is how government and markets can complement one another. Essentially, we do not need to abandon markets — we can make them better. Specifically, relatively incremental actions, such as continued support for ACA  marketplaces, continued efforts to increase the effectiveness of transparency initiatives, procompetitive reforms to reduce the deleterious consequences of provider consolidation,5 and regulations to prevent the most severe market failures, such as limits on surprise billing or more aggressive caps on excessive prices in the commercial market, seem like first-order ways to improve market functioning with a relatively light touch.  If we fail to improve market functioning, stronger government involvement will most likely be needed.

My impression is that unless there is stronger government involvement there will no be equity of access, specially after covid pandemic.

 

Milgrom and Wilson on auctions and Nobel Prize

The Prize in Economic Sciences 2020

The quest for perfect auction

Additional readings

When basic and applied sciences meet together:

Milgrom and Wilson’s ground-breaking initial work should be regarded as basic research. They wanted to use and develop game theory to analyse how diferent actors behave strategically when they each have access to diferent information. Auctions – with their clear rules that govern this strategic behaviour – comprised a natural arena for their research. However, auctions have gained in practical signifcance and, since the mid-1990s, they have been increasingly used in the distribution of complex public assets, such as frequency bands, electricity and natural resources. Fundamental insights from auction theory provided the foundation for constructing new auction formats that overcame these new challenges. 

The new auction formats are a beautiful example of how basic research can subsequently generate inventions that beneft society. The unusual feature of this example is that the same people developed the theory and the practical applications. The Laureates’ ground-breaking research about auctions has thus been of great beneft, for buyers, sellers and society as a whole.

Long time ago, I studied my PhD with Milgrom-Roberts book on organizational economics, later I published an article on auctions for primary care in Hacienda Publica, using Milgrom ideas. It is a well deserved Prize, I know what it really means.

 

The future of work (2)

 A World Without Work. Technology, Automation and How We Should Respond

The struggle for subsistence was the challenge that preoccupied most of mankind. Our generation has been fortunate to wake up in a world where people need not be condemned to that fate, where there is in principle enough economic prosperity for us all to keep ourselves and our families alive. The looming problems—of inequality, power, and meaning—are just the consequences of this unprecedented
prosperity. They are the price we pay for the material abundance that some of us (though as yet not all of us) have been fortunate to enjoy. And in my view, it is a price worth  paying. 
In the twenty-first century, we will have to build a new age of security, one that no longer relies on paid work for its foundations. And we have to begin this task today. Although we cannot know exactly how long it will take to arrive at a world with less work for human beings to do, there are clear signs that we are on our way there. The problems of inequality, power, and meaning are not lurking in the distance, hidden out of sight in the remote future. They have already begun to unfold, to trouble and test our inherited institutions and traditional ways of life. It is up to us now to respond.

 

The future of work

 Work in the Age of Data

The exponential increase in data processing, transmission, and storage capacity brought about by the digital revolution, and the concomitant reduction in costs per unit, marks the start of a new era: the “Age of Data.” We are in the midst of a period of rapid transformation, in the economy, society, and our way of life. And these changes are having particularly far-reaching effects on the world of work.

Nineteen leading experts from all over the world outline the major, radical reforms needed to address  the challenges of the Age of Data and to harness technology as a powerful force for drastically improving  working conditions and living standards at a global scale.

 

CRISPR Nobel prize

 Genetic scissors: a tool for rewriting the code of life

GREAT NEWS! 

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2020 to

Emmanuelle Charpentier, Max Planck Unit for the Science of Pathogens, Berlin, Germany

Jennifer A. Doudna, University of California, Berkeley, USA

“for the development of a method for genome editing”

Popular information: Genetic scissors: a tool for rewriting the code of life (pdf)

Scientific Background: A tool for genome editing (pdf)

Unfortunately, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has shown its ignorance about the real discovery of CRISPR. It happened in the '90s in Salines de Santa Pola by Dr. Martinez Mojica.

Health as a priority

Prioritizing health: A prescription for prosperity

Mckinsey Global Institute has released a relevant report:

In Prioritizing health: A prescription for prosperity, we measure the potential to reduce the burden of disease globally through the application of proven interventions across the human lifespan over two decades. By intervention, we mean actions aimed at improving the health of an individual. These range from public sanitation programs to surgical procedures and adherence to medication and encompass interventions recommended by leading institutions like the World Health Organization or national medical associations. We also examine the potential to reduce the disease burden from innovations over the same period.