27 de febrer 2023

Les decisions basades en la ignorància en temps de pandèmia

 Divided We Survive? Multilevel Governance during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy and Spain

L'avaluació de polítiques públiques és l'assignatura que menys agrada als governs. Els agrada tan poc que no hi dediquen recursos i si algú treu conclusions, aleshores fan com si no passés res.

Allò que va passar durant la pandèmia sabem tots que va ser molt fort. Em refereixo a decisions que es podien haver pres, que sabíem quines podien ser i en quin moment calia prendre-les. Em refereixo a decisions sobre les que no hi havia competència per prendre-les. Totes aquestes decisions incertes van tenir conseqüències, algunes d'elles letals i que no seran quantificades ni ningú se'n farà responsable. A data d'avui el nostre cervell és molt ràpid en oblidar tot plegat.

Podeu consultar en un article recent quin va ser el resultat comparat de prendre decisions mitjançant coordinació descentralitzada o centralització jeràrquica. És a dir, aprofitant petites peces d'informació local en un context d'ignorància o no. El resultat va ser aquest:


We document that in Spain, the pre-crisis governance mechanisms that would prove crucial in a pandemic were effectively paralyzed with the implementation of a single command that effectively centralized healthcare decision-making, and to large extent, inhibited incentives for cooperation between different governments. That is, the logic of the state of alarm deterred information sharing and regional co-governance. 
In contrast, in Italy, intergovernmental tensions emerged only in the second wave, when it was clearer how to manage the virus. During the first wave of the pandemic, regions passively allowed an increasing coordination role led by the central state. However, given that such coordination was not hierarchically imposed, it did not reduce the incentives to share information on best practices, or to implement more restrictive policies at the regional level. Comparing the reactions to the pandemic in two countries (Italy and Spain) allows us to study whether hierarchical centralization in Spain fared  better than informal decentralized coordination implemented in Italy. Our findings suggest that decentralized governance gives rise to better health outcomes and outputs than hierarchical  centralization.
I la conclusió:
When the source of the pandemic is localized and policy uncertainty is high (as during the first wave of the pandemic), a decentralized coordination mechanism, even when passively adopted, such as in Italy, would be advantageous (better outcomes and outputs) because it combines enhanced coordination, particularly information sharing and the profiling of their policy restrictions to the regional needs and priorities, above and beyond those of the central government.

Estic convençut que si tornés una altra pandèmia tornarien a replicar-se els mateixos errors. I és que l'error bàsic és trobar-nos enmig d'aquest enigma de dominació jeràrquica del que no hi ha manera de sortir-ne.

PD. I de l'excés de mortalitat actual i d'aquest estiu passat, gairebé no se'n parla.