How to stop ineffective and harmful medical practices

Ending Medical Reversal: Improving Outcomes, Saving Lives

What are medical reversals? We expect that medicine will progress in a generally orderly fashion, with good medical practices being replaced by better ones. We used to use cholestyramine—a horribly tolerated drug that had no effect on patients’ life expectancy—to lower cholesterol after heart attacks. Now we use atorvastatin, a well-tolerated drug backed by robust evidence that it saves lives. This is how medical practice should evolve. Reversal, however, is different. Reversal occurs when a currently accepted therapy is overturned, found to be no better than the therapy it replaced. This often occurs when a practice—a diagnostic tool, a medicine, a procedure, or a surgical technique—is adopted without a robust evidence base.

 Instead of the ideal, which is replacement of good medical practices by better ones, medical reversal occurs when a currently accepted therapy is overturned—found to be no better than the therapy it replaced. Now, you might argue that this is how science is supposed to proceed. In high school, we learned that the scientific method involves proposing a hypothesis and testing to see whether it is right. This is true. But what has happened in medicine is that the hypothesized treatment is often instituted in millions of people, and billions of dollars are spent, before adequate research is done. Not surprisingly, sometimes the research demonstrates that the hypothesis was incorrect and that the treatment, which is already being used, is ineffective or harmful.

So what?

Our medical system is too tolerant of unproven practices. Doctors are too comfortable recommending a practice without real knowledge of whether it is helping or hurting patients. People are too willing to accept practices that seem like they should help. When a medical reversal does occur, most physicians consider it an exception to the rule. 

We need a culture change in medicine. We need to recommit to evidence-based medicine and realize that it is the only rational way to provide care. In this book we have provided a few suggestions for ways we can improve. We do not advocate that these recommendations be immediately implemented but that they be carefully considered, alongside recommendations proposed by other thoughtful analysts, and tested in prospective trials. As we move forward, we must recognize that drastic and dramatic change can often be harmful. We acknowledge that there will be areas of medicine in which, for now, we must tolerate the status quo. As we go through the house of medicine and clean up each room, we have to prioritize.  

Well, let's say that the book focuses on the shadows of medicine, but this is only one part. Generalisations are inacurate. Anyway, good to review it. And medical education is not enough to solve the issue, incentives and culture play a crucial role.

The opportunity costs of excessive medical practice variations

 Atlas de utilización de procedimientos de dudoso valor. Actualización datos 2017

From the new report on practice variations:

La literatura científica abunda en estimaciones de la proporción de asistencia sanitaria cuyo valor para el paciente es cuando menos escaso. Este cuerpo de evidencia no ha hecho sino crecer en la última década, dando origen a varias iniciativas tanto académicas como gubernamentales para identificar y abordar lo que se considera uno de los principales problemas de los sistemas sanitarios modernos. Hay consenso: se trata de un fenómeno altamente prevalente que pone en cuestión el buen uso de los recursos sanitarios.
La actividad sanitaria de dudoso valor incluye tanto la utilización de procedimientos escasamente efectivos o para los que existen alternativas superiores, como el uso de intervenciones efectivas en indicaciones en las que los beneficios para el paciente son prácticamente nulos y en ocasiones incluso generan efectos negativos. Obviamente, para el sistema sanitario y la sociedad que destina los recursos necesarios, el coste oportunidad derivado de este tipo de actividad es sustancial.

So many years talking about it and nothing happens...

Great report, something should be done.
 Angulo-Pueyo E, Seral-Rodríguez M, Ridao-Lopez M, Estupiñán-Romero F, Martínez-Lizaga N, Comendeiro-Maaloe M, Ibañez-Beroiz B, Librero-López J, Millán-Ortuondo E, Peiró-Moreno S, Bernal-Delgado E, por el grupo Atlas VPM. Atlas de variaciones en la práctica médica en utilización de procedimientos de dudoso valor en el Sistema Nacional de Salud, 2017. Marzo 2020; Disponible en: www.atlasvpm.org/atlas/desinversion-2017

PS. Some books I'm waiting for.

Key Indicators for Health

Leading Health Indicators 2030: Advancing Health, Equity, and Well-Being

Hyper-personalized medicine is just starting

If DNA is like software, can we just fix the code?

 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2020

From technology Review:

Here is our annual list of technological advances that we believe will make a real difference in solving important problems. How do we pick? We avoid the one-off tricks, the overhyped new gadgets. Instead we look for those breakthroughs that will truly change how we live and work.

• Unhackable internet

• Hyper-personalized medicine

• Digital money

• Anti-aging drugs

• AI-discovered molecules

• Satellite mega-constellations

• Quantum supremacy

• Tiny AI

• Differential privacy

• Climate change attribution

What hyper-personalized medicine stands for?

Here’s a definition of a hopeless case: a child with a fatal disease so exceedingly rare that not only is there no treatment, there’s not even anyone in a lab coat studying it. “Too rare to care,” goes the saying.
That’s about to change, thanks to new classes of drugs that can be tailored to a person’s genes. If an extremely rare disease is caused by a specific DNA mistake—as several thousand are—there’s now at least a fighting chance for a genetic fix.
One such case is that of Mila Makovec, a little girl suffering from a devastating illness caused by a unique genetic mutation, who got a drug manufactured just for her. Her case made the New England Journal of Medicine in October, after doctors moved from a readout of her genetic error to a treatment in just a year. They called the drug milasen, after her.
The treatment hasn’t cured Mila. But it seems to have stabilized her condition: it has reduced her seizures, and she has begun to stand and walk with assistance.
Mila’s treatment was possible because creating a gene medicine has never been faster or had a better chance of working. The new medicines might take the form of gene replacement, gene editing, or antisense (the type Mila received), a sort of molecular eraser, which erases or fixes erroneous genetic messages. What the treatments have in common is that they can be programmed, in digital fashion and with digital speed, to correct or compensate for inherited diseases, letter for DNA letter.
How many stories like Mila’s are there? So far, just a handful.
But more are on the way. Where researchers would have once seen obstacles and said “I’m sorry,” they now see solutions in DNA and think maybe they can help.
The real challenge for “n-of-1” treatments (a reference to the number of people who get the drug) is that they defy just about every accepted notion of how pharmaceuticals should be developed, tested, and sold. Who will pay for these drugs when they help one person, but still take large teams to design and manufacture?
—Antonio Regalado

Allocating drugs by lottery

Health ministers condemn Novartis lottery for Zolgensma, the world’s most expensive drug

Novartis has held the first draw to choose four babies who will receive its one-shot treatment for the genetic disease spinal muscular atrophy, Zolgensma (onasemnogene abeparvovec), amid criticism of its lottery programme from patient groups and EU health ministers.
Priced in the United States at $2.1m (£1.6m; €1.9m), the most expensive drug course of treatment ever, Zolgensma is not yet approved elsewhere. In December the company announced a plan to give away 50 treatments in other countries over the next six months, the recipients to be chosen randomly from among applicants every two weeks.
Recipients must be under 2, the upper age limit for which the drug is approved in the US. Most of the children in the Zolgensma draw were registered by their doctors. About one child in every 8000 live births is born with spinal muscular atrophy. The most severe type, called type 1 or Werdnig-Hoffmann disease, usually causes death during early childhood if untreated.

Does this makes any sense? In my opinion is a perfect strategy (for Novartis) to create artificial  scarcity. It is a well known approach to increase willingness to access/ willingness to pay. It was described by Adam Brandenburger in a book long time ago: Coopetition.
I hope it will not succeed (at least in Europe).

David Hockney

Predictive modeling in health care (2)

Data-Driven Approaches for Health Care Machine Learning for Identifying High Utilizers

Predicting health outcomes using data modeling approaches is an emerging field that can reveal important insights into disproportionate spending patterns. This book presents data driven methods, especially machine learning, for understanding and approaching the high utilizers problem, using the example of a large public insurance program.

Five years ago I explained in this blog our experience on predictive modeling. This a key reference book.

Confidential drug pricing without confidential prices

Performance-based managed entry agreements for new medicines in OECD countries and EU member states: How they work and possible improvements going forward

In this blog I've explained my position against confidential prices for drugs. However, there is an option to complicate it: confidential entry agreements. This is the current trend for high cost drugs with uncertain outcome. The report of the OECD explains the current situation in different countries and helps to shed light in this important issue. Just take this short statement and you'll be convinced of the complete mess:

It is difficult to assess to what extent performance-based MEAs have so far been successful. Few countries have formally evaluated their experience. Confidentiality of agreements continues to be a barrier to independent evaluation and little evidence is public. However, information available from expert interviews and from prior studies indicates that CED agreements have so far had a poor track record of reducing uncertainty around the performance of medicines. As a result, some countries have recently reformed CED schemes and some are discontinuing CED agreements altogether in favour of alternatives. The latter include restricted or conditional coverage without a MEA, whereby coverage is initially restricted to certain indications or patient groups and only broadened if and when additional evidence becomes available. Payment-by-result agreements continue to be used quite widely, but they do not always generate evidence
on product performance because data used for triggering payments are not always  aggregated and analysed.

Sophia Al-Maria at Tate