January 31, 2013

Plausible stories about the future

Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios

Last week the "health output" of the Davos World Economic Forum was a report on Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios. A quick look at the document will show you that the future could lie only in three scenarios. This is an easy way to limit what may happen. A reduccionist perspective I would say. Anyway, you may agree or disagree after reading it. The three options would be:

  • In Health Incorporated, the boundaries of the health industry are redefined. Corporations provide new products and services as markets liberalize, governments cut back on public services and a new sense of conditional solidarity emerges.
  • In New Social Contract, governments are responsible for driving health system efficiency and for regulating organizations and individuals to pursue healthy living.
  • In Super-empowered Individuals, citizens use an array of products and services to manage their own health. Meanwhile, corporations compete for this lucrative market and governments try to address the consequences.
Fortunately the future will be more complex, an organized chaos at best, evolving from what we already see right now.

PS. Horrendous stories about the past.